Having a Plan is Better Than None, But The Best is The Winning One

I doubt this bull market hasn't took everybody by surprise. We can say it started right after the March 2020 crash and the pace at which the prices of Bitcoin and most of the altcoins grew has been spectacular. It's true, we're in a consolidation period right now and most of us are looking North, but we've come from there until hitting rock bottom.

If you check previous price predictions and forecasts of this bull cycle I bet 99% of them haven't actually predicted a local top of $65,000 for Bitcoin, that occurring exactly eleven months after the halving. I don't remember even reading of anything above $20,000 till the end of 2020 and have a look at what a tremendous rally we had.

It's quite easy to fall into despair and depression, but probably that's when you should be more bullish, if able to spot such emotional states and play your cards right. Same way works with greed to. I bet there are a few individuals and commercial entities that have made a lot of money on the way up and probably now reaccumulating.

I am not one of those because I wasn't able to make myself a well designed plan, one that should be applied on stages. I had one, but not suited for what happened. Mine was to DCA my exist as of June-July this year and back then when I thought of it, it sounded good, now when reflecting on what actually happened, it's childish and has no logic at all.

Why plan your entering and exiting the market based on time frames rather than price levels? That was my main mistake for not making the most out of the first major rally of this bull market. I still believe that we will have a second one followed by a blow off top, but I could have played it all way better.

For example, if planning on selling based on price ranges and not time frames, I would have sold in April-May some portion of my portfolio and rebuy more with the same amount of money, increasing my chances of earning even more in that long awaited euphoria stage of the cycle. It's also good to always have some dry powder on the side. Just in case...

I haven't taken that into consideration either. I'm always all in. Either all in the market or all out of the market. I can see that clearly, unfortunately I do it after the show takes place. I guess that's a remittance from my gambling experience.

There's always another chance for rebranding, recalibrating and rethinking your path, hence it would probably be the time I would take into consideration all of the above but not tied to a time frame, rather DCAing based on price levels, sentiment of the market and so on.

Sometimes you have to even bet against yourself and by that I refer to actually selling an asset when you feel like getting greedy and buying when fearful. You don't have to do that with your entire portfolio, but try with a portion of it.

I don't know how this correction time is working for you, but in my case it has been a lot of introspection and trying to better myself for the next months. I subscribe to the idea that we will probably have a blow off top somewhere in Q4 of this year, but how do you recognize that and how much HODL is too much... Those are a few questions I have to answer myself until that time.

Hope you've managed your portfolio so far better than me and see you to next post. Have a great Saturday.

Thanks for attention, Adrian

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