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Growing Pains - A market outlook

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@allcapsonezero
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Things Don't Just Go Up!


They go down too... and sideways. A lot of the downward and sideways action is necessary in order to get upward momentum again. This is the key. I am never down on downtrends or sideways action, it can get boring as the days in the crypto space seem uneventful, but there is no reason to get down. This is all necessary to get us where we are going.

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Proof of Brain


When the front end was brand new, and there were just a handful of people posting on the front end, and @proofofbrainio was actively distributing the early tokens to people, there were not too many of us... and I showed up late to the party. That small core of people can not make a successful token, platform and ecosystem. They sure can help it along though! If 40 of us kept on getting big upvotes and grew massive stakes, the coin itself would end up worthless. People need to see distribution and rewards for themselves. They need to feel that they have a fair shot.

Because there was interest in the coin, and because people started buying it on the open market, the coin rose in value. There are a lot of sellers, there always have been. In order for the price to go up, there needs to be more buyers. As it stands right now, there aren't as many buyers as sellers.

This is where it gets interesting. If the coin continues to go down, many of the sellers (who I am assuming are also writing) will stop writing as it becomes a chore more than a lucrative endeavour. This in turn will decrease sell pressure.

Another one worth noting is that as distribution increases, as everyone on Hive is tagging #pob these days, there are going to be the same amount of rewards spread across many more accounts. In the early days of this "next stage" of distribution, many people who are not interested in POB will be selling for whatever they are interested in. More downward pressure on the market. That said, some people who are tagging POB might enjoy the rewards and want to build a stake... that has the opposite effect. Upward pressure. We will need to see which of these dominates.

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My point here is, things are changing. There isn't necessarily a large whale intending to buy every POB token listed on the market any more, which certainly contributed to the price increase. There is far wider distribution and the sellers who at one point were making big bucks are starting to get grounded a bit. Fast times don't last indefinitely. They do sometimes show up again though. I am counting on that!

Confidence in POB wavered and could still be wavering... I have a lot of confidence in it at this point. That said, those that are selling cannot sell forever, especially as distribution changes and rewards lower. The buyers who are powering up whale like stakes will have new curating patterns and distribution will continue to change. Upvotes tend to stay consistent with users that are growing with the platform. That is the reality... distribution favours those that stake their POB.

POB is still pretty iron handed when it comes to staking. 89% is the current amount staked. This leaves 11% liquid and some fraction of that 11% on the market. If this trend continues, upward pressure is the only way I see things rolling. What is happening and has been happening over the last month needs to play itself out. Sellers need to keep selling while the bulls keep on buying it up. This is how markets grow, and shrink before they grow again.

I see POB tokens finding some happy equilibrium in the next few weeks. It has been up, then down and sideways for a while. The larger crypto market hasn't been helping with that, as that is what is at play there too, and these smaller coins still follow. Cheap BTC means people are selling what they got to get in.

I am not sure where the short term happy price for POB tokens will be, and I am to too worried about that. My long term outlook is solid on this project. I think it will follow Hive, as it has (down) and will likely follow it back up. I am more looking at where it will find its equilibrium in relation to Hive. 0.5 - 2.0 are certainly on the table, I don't see it going lower than that, but it could dip for a bit - I'm going to set some buy orders ;). But Hive could be $1.50 in a few months (*could)... that could put POB at anywhere between $0.75 and $3.00. I could be way off base here too... but that is what could be coming if the greater market turns around.

That said, I am staking most of my POB. I am playing on the POB market a bit (I know, I know... I made the POB pledge... but once @madstacks went rouge...) but I am committed to staking the vast majority of my tokens instantly.

LEO


Leo has been following BNB, ETH and Hive (down). It is that simple. There is not enough upward pressure (yet) to break it out of the coins it is tied too. The LeoBridge will likely alter that over time, but it is still largely a work in progress. ETH - BSC (one way)is ready. Matic is under construction. There is a lot of work that needs to go down before it is ready. My take on LEO is that it is going to follow the three above mentioned coins (and soon MATIC as well) for the short term.

Air-drops, news and development on LeoBridge and all of the other amazing developments that are happening on LEOFinance are still far away yet (price tends to follow results, sadly). That said, now is a perfect time to get all of that LEO power that you wanted at a cheap price. I am pretty sure that you will not be sorry long term.

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Hive Engine Coins


These coins are all tied to Hive. When Hive goes down to seasonal lows, which it was at a few days ago, all Hive Engine coins will tend to go down in value too. It also follows that people might shake up their Hive-Engine wallet at the bottom and re-position themselves. Sideways and downward action tends to have that type of a reaction for crypto investors. I am not surprised by the volatility on Hive-Engine at this moment. There are lots of coins to shake up in this blender and during times like these... there is no surprise that the value of these coins is all over the place.

CUB


The clock is ticking on cheap CUB. There is still a ton of "old school" Cubbers out there selling their CUB for BUSD to keep their farm growing. Once Kingdoms is fully implemented and the CUB Kingdom multiplier rivals the CUB farms, I see a lot of CUB crossing the border and the price of CUB going up accordingly. The sell pressure is still in play like CUB was Goose... and it still is half Goose. Once it is 100% Kingdom, the sell pressure for CUB will go down. My thought is way down. There are a lot of diamond hands buying a lot of cheap CUB. Once this $0.55 cent CUB is sold, I don't think we will ever see it that low again... Especially if BTC stays over $30K.

Where do I see it going. UP. How far? I am not too sure. I could see it triple pretty quick. There are a lot of people biding their time, waiting to pounce on it, but much like Splinterlands packs near the end of their run... once they start going... they go FAST! I see this happening with CUB. Once it hits a certain price point and doesn't start to creep down... there will be a ton of buyers and people racing to move their CUB from farms to Kingdoms until the moonshot is over. Don't say I didn't warn you, but also don't say that I advised you... because I am just telling you what I think is going to happen. Figure out what you think before you act.

CUB Kingdoms rolling out needs to be complete first, the Kingdom multiplier needs to double and the liquid BNB needs to be applied as a secondary reward for staking the CUB kingdom. Whenever those things are in place. All bets are off... but my bet is (a big one in real life) that this baby is going to shoot up and all of the diamond handed CUB hodlers are going to be very happy that they stuck with the project.

Then, once again, there will be a market looking for equilibrium. The APR's on the CUB farms are going to go way up because the Kingdom got filled as CUB shot up in value. People that bought cheap CUB are going to look at the APR's and decide to jump back into the farm and the cycle begins again.

Conclusion


This Shark feeding frenzy cannot last forever. At some point a whale is going to call it a bear market or a bull market with a big buy or a big sell. Time will tell. The sellers and buyers are at equilibrium right now in the $30 -$40K BTC range. It will not last forever here... but it could stay here for a while longer.

That said, I really can't call this one. There is hope, then there is despair and it has been repeating for a month. This is it, the big bull run is back... nope, it was a fakeout. This is it, the bear market begins... nope, another fakeout. Repeat... again and again. Time will tell on this one... it appears the whole market is undergoing some growing pains. They are necessary, but never fun.

That said, there is a lot happening across the market and it is necessary to take us to the next level. Sharks cannot feed on diamond hands. Once the sharks are starved out, things will inevitably change. Until then, there are a lot of factors at play and a lot of opportunity before us. Do your own research and make your moves wisely.