Economy of Voucher: The Efficient Market
Voucher
Splinterlands pre-sale is finally live. Three days back we have started getting Vouchers, which are Hive Engine Tokens required to purchase Chaos Legion packs during pre-sale. A lot of us were excited for a while to get out hands on these. My interest is also in the overall economy of Splinterlands, which is currently my favorite game and I am heavily invested in it both emotionally and financially. Voucher is obviously a new token, here is the official mechanics of the token
Chaos Legion presale pack they wish to purchase. 33,333.333 VOUCHER tokens will be created daily over the course of the 30 presale period (1M VOUCHER tokens in total) and will be awarded to all players who have SPS tokens staked in their in-game account based on the amount staked as a percentage of the total staked across all players in the game.
To make long story short, there is going to be 1M CL packs for the pre-sale and 1M Vouchers to be airdropped within 30 (37) days of pre-sale. The extra 7 days will be there to complete purchase with all the packs that you have collected during the drop.
As you can see from above that I have staked 310,000 SPS so far, that gives me 75 Vouchers/day. I sold a few already as the price was sky high (relatively speaking). I currently have 32. I am planning to purchase 2000 packs, that will give me 400 additional bonus packs, and it will cost me about 9000 SPS (with the current price of $0.80 /SPS)
I sold about 200 Vouchers at the open market to respond to high prices. Even if I don't do anything further, in theory, I will still have enough vouchers to purchase 2000 packs (at a discounted price of $3). Hopefully that will give me about 50 promo cards, 2 GF promo cards, and 2 Legionaire titles as a bonus. All these items have significant financial value. I am certain that I will be handsomely rewarded on my investment. In addition, if the Voucher price drops, I will purchase additional vouchers (and additional packs using those vouchers), and if Voucher prices rally further, I can potentially sell about 100 more vouchers or stake more SPS to collect more vouchers. That is my general game plan.
The Effcient Market Hypothesis
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) or theory states that prices reflect all information at any given time.
Pre-sale of Chaos Legion is one financial event. The rules are given. The tokens are trading in an open and free market. In this situation the price of the tokens (Voucher & Chaos) are determined by supply and demand at any given time. Right now, early into the pre-sale, there is a lot of demand and very little supply. This is reflected in the price (high or low is relative). The price at this point is the net sum of all the information and all the market forces. At a future time, the market forces may change (it will) and the price will change with it. The supply of Vouchers will increase every day, that is a fact, until it reach 1M on the 30th day. Demand is unknown. However, there are only 3 possible outcomes with the demand:
- If the demand rises and outpaces the supply, the price will rally
- If the demand stays flat, the price will drop somewhat (proportional to the increased supply each day), but not too much.
- If the demand drops, the price will drop even further.
These are all potential probabilities. I do not have a prediction as I do not predict the market. I am prepared for all possibilities. Hope you are too! Happy trading!
