Let there be light

Fiat Lux is the Latin phrase that comes from the third verse of the Book of Genesis. I am an atheist. But I do study all kinds of religious text and literature for scientific and philosophical understanding, which helps me with my daily life. That quote is also the motto of many instiutes and famous libraries. I can think of University of California, at Berkley for example. Here the use of 'light' is knowledge, that is the same way I am using the phrase in the title.

I have a feeling, people who read me (3 in total?) have a general idea from the title why I am writing this note and about what. It is about the sharp correction we just had in the crypto market and the impact there after on my friends. You guys typically know very well that I write for myself, and my blog is essentially whatever I have on my mind. So, here it goes. BTC made an ATH on April 14, 2021 at around $65K. From that it went down at hit $30K yesterday. That is about a 53% drop. I am not going the discuss the cause, speculation, etc. Simply because none of that is relevant to me, for my particular style of trading. I am just interested in price and volume. These are facts. That is all that matters to me. Also, I can't predict the market, maybe other people can, I never needed to. I have been trading for 29 years and I have traded anything under the sun, and I am financially free. In my youth, I did try and predict the market, and failed. Through many bitter trades and losses I have learned that I don't really need to predict the market. I just need to react to it. That is what I do mostly these days, other than long term investments of course.

Anyways, when crypto market dropped yesterday; there was a global cry among crypto people that sky is falling, and BTC is dead once again (no pun intended). People started saying (multiple people), that they have seen "nothing like this". I mean you can have short term memory problem, but seriously?

This is BTC during the Covid low. From the high of Feb 14, 2020 ($10.5K), it dropped 63% to the Covid Low of ~$3900. It promptly bounced of course (they always do); and took BTC 40 days to reclaim its 50-day exponential moving average (which I consider a 'measure' of the trend). Some of us with memory of a gold-fish forgotten that already, seems like :)

Just for reference: a 63% drop from the current ATH puts BTC at ~$24,000, and a 69 day ATH to reclaim of the EMA, puts the date on June 22, 2021. None of these are prediction. These are only a reference related to a past experience. Just so that we keep outselves grounded on what is happening, and keep some sanity.

I have a few levels that I am personally watching, $42K have been broken (but it can be a fake move, time will tell). I have $29K next, which didn't hit (yet), then I have $20K below that. However, we will cross that bridge when we get to it.

De-Fi World

Defi was hit as well with most tokens down significantly. Personally, I haven't made any changes in the last couple of days. I just bought a few BNB, as I always feel that I don't have enough BNB. I didn't buy them for any specific trade or investment purposes, but I just need BNB daily for operational reasons. I call it OPEX. I am summerize defi nicely with the meme below, I am thinking about Pancakebunny :)

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Disclaimer: This is NOT professional advice, this is all just my own opinion and experience. I am NOT a Certified Financial Adviser. Consult professionals for any financial, accounting or legal related questions you have.

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