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Revisiting the $20K price point hypothesis for Ethereum

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Behiver
@behiver
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There was a hypothesis during the 2021 bull run that Ethereum is heading for a $20k price point considering all the events that were to come, like the EIP-1559 burning mechanism and The Merge to Proof-of-Stake. The mathematics from that point made sense and if no other bad events were to intervene, some would believe that it was a good prediction to make. But with the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, inflation and other negative cascading effects, I think that prediction will take more time to come to fruition.

Basically, the price prediction can be depicted by analyzing the supply over time with considering a funds infusion keeping the same levels. The Ethereum issuance while Proof-of-Work was standing at 13,500 tokens per day. Considering a medium price of $2,000 per 1 Ethereum that would need $27 million infused per day.

  • 13,500 ETH x $2,000 per ETH = $27 million per day

With The Merge, we had a reduction of 90% in issuance, bringing it down to around 1,350 new ETH generated per day. Considering as baseline that the same amount of $27 million per day will be infused into Ethereum, that will give us a new price point of $20,000.

  • 1,350 ETH x $20,000 per ETH = $27 million per day

Obviously, this didn't happen considering the new macroeconomic conditions and it is hard to do any further such prediction for the future. I don't have any doubt that in the long term we'll get there, but who has patience in the crypto space? Basically, the adrenaline from the bull market times made us addicted and simply we created a big gap between what we hoped for and what is really possible. So, can Ethereum get to $20,000 and when can that happen?

My prediction for Ethereum pushing towards a $20,000 price point would be for 2024 due to the following events.

  • In 2024, Bitcoin will experience its 4th halving and will move the entire market to new all-time highs as history showed us.
  • After The Merge that took place, we witnessed a “sell the news” event and a correction happening. This will soon reverse its trend and start regaining market shares point after point.
  • Ethereum is a deflationary asset and with the infrastructure expansion will dominate the crypto space and push the technology to new use cases.

What do you think, can we get Ethereum to $20k sooner rather than later?

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