The Bear Is Still Here

As much as I love the recent increase in bitcoin price it seems like everything just reset a full month back and it most likely is going to get worse. See the thing is there's a huge amount of negative pressure on crypto right now and with that we are still in a bear market even though we have seen a small uptick. That's the tricky thing about bear markets there might be small rallies within them but overall the pressure is still down. Let's take a quick look at some of the things going on with the world and crypto right now and why I feel the next 6 months are going to be rough. Those predictions of a bull run for 2025 are looking more and more like the reality however 2024 could be a positive.

Fed Rates

The fed is rumored now to be increasing interest rates at a more aggressive number this time around. While everyone is panicked about it I see it as a good thing. Time and time again in history when this happens the fed backs off and inflation comes back WORSE than what it was and completely demolishes the economy which takes a good 10 years to recover from. With this hard hitting interest rate hike even though inflation seems to be coming down a little the reason for that is because of the aggressive nature of the rate hikes of 75 points over the last year or 6 months. This is because of the lag effect of the general markets based on this. What happens is the fed backs off thinking it's been solved and that back off 6 months later comes ripping back into the economy and destroys it. By keeping and still aggressively hitting rate hikes during this time we should see inflation not come ripping back like it has in the past. Personally I would love to see another 75 point hike and I hope we get it. However most likely we will see a 50 point this time around which is still better than that junk 25 that happened last month.

Silvergate

Silvergate bank is a major bank that allowed for crypto to fiat conversions. However they now seem to be going under. This is why banks shouldn't even be part of cryto. The issue with all of these platforms are they are paying employees, loaning out your crypto deposits etc and have hardly any real liquid assets to return the crypto back to investors as banks are only required to keep 10% of money liquid of peoples deposits. That along with bad investments on their part in FTX have caused major issues for the bank. This is where I go back to it would be better to have a million people with 1 bitcion instead of a single bank with 1 million bitcoin.

As we can see banks do no better job at investing than every day people so the amount of damage would be less, the spirt of crypt would remain (which is pretty much it's your own damn fault for investing badly and to DYOR do your own research) and it's decentralized in enough of a way. Will centralizing and regulating crypto really fuel growth or will it just give the powers that be even more power over citizens and thus crushing any freedoms it once gave people.

Biden Tax Loophole

One of the things that created velocity for crypto was a so called loophole where people would sell off crypto for a loss in order to pay no taxes on it. What's really crazy though is this is the same exact thing people have been doing for years in the stock market. As we can see once again the government is out to get more money from people instead of trying to reduce spending. Every time these tax moves happen it's taking more and more freedoms away from people. The freedom of financial independent and making your own choices with the money you worked for.

Thoughts

With all this negative still going on and no it's not FUD it's real issues lol the markets are going to be a mess for a while as everything still gets sorted out and starts to rebuild. I honestly no longer see a summer rally and instead we most likely will be waiting another year for a true bull market again.

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