Don't fall for the altcoin bulltrap

Lot's of people have noticed – me included – that in the recent downfall of crypto markets, a lot of altpairs have performed well against Bitcoin. However, that's only if you cherrypick altcoin performance from the past week.

This chart shows the altcoin dominance (100-BTC.D in tradingview). ie. the market share of all but Bitcoin. As you can see, the downtrend has started already since February-March and you could argue that a longer term trend was confirmed in May when the long term uptrend broke to the downside. That to me was the final confirmation that we are indeed in a bear market which means alts are going to be bleeding against Bitcoin for a long time. Everything goes down, Bitcoin just goes down less. But even during consolidation and a new bullmarket initiation, the alt-btc pairs still continue to bleed. Thus, it's stacking sats for now.

Part of the increasing altcoin dominance is also partly because of stablecoins. If you exclude stablecoins the downtrend is even clearer. Check out Benjamin Cowen's video about it.

HIVE-BTC

Now Hive has been doing quite well against Bitcoin for the last month. Though that's after it fell off a cliff, and the longer downtrend is still holding strong. We are still getting rejected from the descending resistance line.

I took the opportunity to trade liquid HIVE into Bitcoin since I don't believe we can break the resistance during a bear market. I think we will trickle down slowly to the 1100 satoshis where our next major support lies. Depending how long the bear market lasts, we may or may not hold the 1100 satoshi line.

Conclusion

Altcoin dominance is still forming lower lows and lower highs, despite the recent spike. Don't rely on hopium to see it reverse anytime soon since alt-btc pairs will start to improve only after there's new confidence on Bitcoin.