Deglobalisation & The Scramble For Allies

Hey JessInternational Affairs

The world we knew is changing, and those who were friends or had uneasy relationships in the past are going to have to decide where they will pledge their allegiance or make reluctant relationships within this new global shake-up. Like it or not countries aren't always the best of friends and they usually only get along when once is brown-nosing the other.

Countries are no different from any reality TV show you've ever watched where a bunch of petty people bicker over superfluous things, however, in this case, those things could be food or jobs, and we all can starve or be out of work depending on their argument.

Before corona, we had a few fisticuffs worth mentioning such as:

China and the US

Before the coronavirus, we saw shots fired primarily between the Chinese and the Americans with the two biggest economies throwing handbags at each other trying come to terms with the fact that neither was going to give in to the others demands.

Brexit

The Britts turned their nose up at the Europeans advances and said we would no longer be muscled by Brussels, and we're going our own way. Well except for the Irish, they're going their way against the Britts own way.

Russia and Saudis take on Opec

Then we saw the Russians and Saudis collude to drive down oil prices and piss off every oil-producing nation on the planet.

Wartime ways

We also saw wars in the middle east, north Africa, in Asia with Kasmir, around Ukraine with so many small factions trying to make some sort of strong-arm play for whatever reason and we as the world tolerate it, or instead the Americans have not gone in and beat their brand "freedom" into them.

Global lockdown

We were all being a bit naughty, let's be honest, and corona came and put us all in time out to rethink what we are going to do and how we behave towards one another. Instead of coming out and saying sorry, we learned the error of our ways; we look to be doubling down on our worst ways.

China walk away

The call for deglobalisation is here, and every country seems to be on the bandwagon for now. China benefited hugely of being the world's factory but now that they will be blamed for the lockdown and consequences thereof (even though they two will suffer from it heavily) countries are breaking ties with China in fear of contracting coodies on the global playground.

Bringing jobs home

Globalisation isn't a bad thing, we just took it to the max and instead of having part of it done at home and part of it done aboard to mitigate cost and risk, we went full cost and said make it cheaper in China. We've now learned that was a mistake, but instead of finding a healthy balance most countries are going to bring jobs home, this isn't a bad thing, it's just not the most economically efficient way to use capital, but hey when have we ever been good with money.

The world police

The Americans have always been the biggest bully on the playground if someone steps out of line, you best believe they're taking your lunch money, and while the rest of the world doesn't always agree with their methods, we accept it, or we'll get hit in the face.

Yes the US has abused their military power, but they've also been the world police for so long, happy to jump into any fight in any part of the world.

If they retreat to protecting only themselves and their North American friends, this leaves the rest of the world wide open for other nations to flex their muscles.

You got the likes of France and Japan who are pretty well stocked, and I think they're going to offer their protection racket to other countries in favour of deals the Americans will walk away from to bring jobs home.

New alliances will be formed

In the wake of all these changes, we will probably see new countries getting cosy with one another as they try to protect their interests and reduce reliance on China. This may rob China of significant growth, but it allows other countries to share in what has made China the super power it became.

It may give countries like India extra incentive to leverage their massive population the way the Chinese did and offer up their service to the world.
It may see the Britts, go running to North America and keep Europe at arm's length.
It may see Western Europe start to accept they need to get cosier with the East.
It may see more cheap labour that was in China move to Africa and bring it out of poverty as labour arbitrage changes hands and markets.

We can't be certain what's going to happen, all I know is all countries are now single and ready to mingle, so who will be swiping right on who over the next few months is going to decide the way the world moves forward.

Have your say

What do you good people of HIVE think? Can we all get along under a new umbrella?

So have at it my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, comment "I am a Jessie."

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