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Bitcoin Closes Weekly Candle Above 20 Week EMA (Weekly Forecast)

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Crypto Daily FX
@cryptodailyfx
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Bitcoin rallied last week, initially falling to retest the $30K level before finding support and closing the weekly right above the 20 Week EMA. This is bullish for Bitcoin as support continues to hold and Bitcoin continues to test the 50 Week EMA. But it begs the question whether or not this is a multi-month rounded bottoming formation, or a dead-cat bounce? (June 27, 2021  8:30PM EST)

Short-Term

Bitcoin showed a bit of life as it posted its first green weekly candle in nearly a month. It's been a bearish start to summer but after suffering a >50% retracement, it appears the majority of the selling is over with, assuming Bitcoin hasn't started a new macro bear market. By nearly every measure, Bitcoin is still in a long-term bull market cycle, the question now is whether the bottom is in following the nasty May selloff.Sellers are simply chasing the trade at this point; the point of least resistance over the med-long term is up. Short-term, one could argue the capitulation bottom was 2 weeks ago when Bitcoin fell to under $29K, then bounced up about $4K intraday. Alternatively, it could be argued that maximum pain would be a drop to $20K to retest the previous cycle's ATH, which would assuredly get bought up in a big way by, well, everyone. 

If there's more pain to come, then we could see a drop down to the 78.6% fib retracement of the Sept '20 - May '21 rally around $21,637 which would assuredly get bought up as it hovers just above the 2017 highs which should provide massive support. This is not my primary view but it is possible given the current price action, and it's common for assets to retrace to former resistances to test support. If this happens, I expect a massive capitulation candle that results in a violent bounce back up to $30K or higher which should kickstart the next leg of the bull market rally. 

BTC Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance rallied again to about 48% dominance as capital continues to rotate out of needlessly inflated alts back into the "conservative" mega-cap Bitcoin, which could help push Bitcoin dominance back up to 55 or 60% by the time this short-term selloff and consolidation is over. 

Long-Term

BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. Daily and even weekly charts will show relatively large corrections; this is standard bull market behavior. Now that another altseason has been spectacularly squashed, this sets us up for another Bitcoin leg up to new highs. By nearly every measure, we are nowhere near a top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.

Support: $30K, then at $20K. 

Resistance: $35K, $40K, then $45K. 

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta