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Why I'm Setting Buy Orders at $21K (Weekly BTC Forecast)

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Crypto Daily FX
@cryptodailyfx
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Bitcoin pulled back to start the week, getting rejected by the 50 Week EMA and falling to about $32K on Tuesday. Bitcoin has been forming a bit of a sideways consolidation pattern for the past 2+ months, and based on this week's bearish start, it looks like Bitcoin's bound to resolve this sideways pattern to the downside in the near-term.  . . (July 13, 2021  8:30PM EST)

Short-Term

Bitcoin's short-term prospects look bearish as the 2-month sideways consolidation appears to be leaning towards breaking lower. This almost assuredly means Bitcoin will retest support at $30K. If there's more pain to come, then we could see a drop down to the 78.6% fib retracement of the Sept '20 - May '21 rally around $21,679 which would assuredly get bought up as it hovers just above the 2017 highs which should provide massive support. This has now become my primary view. If this happens, I still expect a massive capitulation candle that results in a violent bounce back up to $30K or higher, which should kickstart the next leg of the bull market rally. Dip-buyers will be rewarded, as they historically always have been with Bitcoin.

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However, by nearly every measure, Bitcoin is still in a long-term bull market cycle. From a probability perspective, sellers are simply chasing the trade at this point; the point of least resistance over the med-long term is up, not down. For nearly all investors/traders, bull markets are when you BTFD, not fade the rally (small subset of active investors).

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BTC Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance has been pretty quiet lately, treading water around the 35-40% area as we wait for Bitcoin to resolve a sideways consolidation pattern on the weekly chart. While the triangle points lower, BTC.D may not suffer, as alts are faring worse than BTC. As a matter of fact, this may be a boon for BTC.D as more capital rotates out of alts down 60-70% and into BTC which typically leads the entire crypto market in recoveries.

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Long-Term

BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. Daily and even weekly charts will show relatively large corrections; this is standard bull market behavior. Now that another altseason has been spectacularly squashed, this sets us up for another Bitcoin leg up to new highs. By nearly every measure, we are nowhere near a top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.

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Support: $30K, then 78.6% fib retracement around $21,679.  

Resistance: $35K, $40K, then $45K. 

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta