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Stacking Hive: To go all-in or to DCA?

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@cryptothesis
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With the recession looming, and the price of Hive relatively low at about 0.35 apiece, there is no question of scooping up Hive.

The question is when. And how?

Indeed, things can go both ways.

One, Hive could go way cheaper than now.

Two, we are close to the bottom for Hive, and Hive can be getting expensive again.

My gut feeling is that Hive could go lower as the quantitative tightening intensifies. The economy is in such a bad shape that fear continues to rise.

But still, let's picture this in numbers and charts.

Suppose I have $600 to invest in Hive and I am looking at a six-month horizon.

Do I go all-in or to DCA?

To keep it simple, let's assume Hive prices either trend upward or downwards. No fluctuation of funny business!

The chart below, based on my calculation, shows the three different projections.

The red line is the amount of Hive I hold if I go all-in with the $600 now. 1714.2857 Hive to be exact. It's a straight line because the quantity remains stagnant. 1 Hive is always 1 Hive!

The green line is a situation where Hive prices drop by 10% every month. It is going upwards relatively steeply because every monthly DCA brings me more Hive with the price reduction.

The blue line is a situation where Hive prices increase by 10% every month. It is going upwards, but the slope is gentler because every monthly DCA brings me less Hive with the price increase.

What is clear is that the blue condition yields lower Hive counts than the all-in strategy, and the green condition yields more Hive at the end, with the break-even point at about the 5th month.

What did I learn from this simple 10% deviation model projected on a monthly basis?

For perspective's sake, the Hive price is projected to be 0.56 at the end of the blue line (which was within the price range two weeks ago). It is quite possible that Hive would get pretty expensive quite fast too. The difference between all-in and DCA is 346 Hive.

The question remains whether I bet on the green or the blue line.

But is there a smarter way to go about doing this?

Yes, that is to keep the 600 on the side and scoop up Hive with all of that when it drops to 0.2646 apiece. That would give me the same 2267.1679 Hive at the end of the green line.

If that does not happen, we will watch and see.

So long as my $600 gets me more than 1714.2857, I win.

Let me know if you have suggestions for me to analyze the data.

P/S: This is not financial advice, and please do your own due diligence.

If you read this far... and if you are a like-minded Hiver who is on the path to learning more about Hive and crypto investing, and if you like to be tagged when I write such posts, I welcome you to leave a comment below and let me know. We can form an alliance to support each other's growth.

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