Hive Inflation And Supply For May 2022

4 mo (edited)
LeoFinance
7 Min Read
1442 words

This is a report for the Hive supply and inflation for May 2022. The HIVE price has been in a downtrend for May 2022 with the overall crypto market. Having in mind some of the Hive specific a downtrend price can cause a pressure on the HIVE inflation.

Let’s take a look!

01.png

The projected annual inflation for 2022 is around 7% , or 0.58% on a monthly basis.

The thing is Hive has a double currency system HIVE and HBD and there are conversions between them that add or remove HIVE from circulation on top of the regular inflation. Furthermore, there is HIVE in the DHF that is slowly being converted to HBD and also HIVE sent to the DHF is also converted to HBD. Because of this additional mechanics the HIVE inflation and supply can be drastically different in real time then the regular one.

To be able to follow the HIVE supply we need the following.

HIVE Created:

  • Author rewards
  • Curation rewards
  • Witness rewards
  • Staking rewards
  • HIVE from HBD Conversions

HIVE Removed:

  • HIVE to HBD conversions
  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD
  • Transfers to null + null as post beneficiary
  • New accounts creation fee

HBD Created:

  • 10% share of the inflation to the DHF
  • HBD Author Rewards
  • Interest payouts
  • HIVE to HBD Conversions
  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD

HBD Removed:

  • HBD to HIVE Conversions
  • Transfers to null + null as post beneficiary

When all the above is summed up, we will get all the differences between them and how much HIVE and HBD was created or removed in a certain time frame.

With this said let’s take a look at the charts.

HIVE Created

Here is the chart.

image001.png

  • HBD to HIVE conversions
  • Curation Rewards
  • Author rewards
  • Staking Rewards
  • Witness Rewards

All the above are paid as Hive Power or VESTS, except for HBD to HIVE conversions.
We can notice that the HBD to HIVE conversions are the dominant in the chart. Thing is this work both ways and a big part of them is converted back to HIVE, especially through the work of the stabilizer.

The regular inflation is around 55k HIVE per day. In May there was on average around 273k HIVE per day from HBD conversions, although as noted most of them are converted back to HBD. A big part of the conversions in both of the directions are now generated from the @hbdstablizer.

A total of 10.2M HIVE was created in the last month, out of which 8.4M from conversions and 1.8M from regular inflation.

HIVE Removed From Circulation

Here is the chart.

image003.png

The above takes into consideration six different ways of HIVE removed

  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD
  • Transfers to null
  • Null as post beneficiary
  • New accounts creation fee
  • HIVE to HBD conversions

As we can see the conversions from HIVE to HBD that happened at the end of August and begging of September 2021 have impacted the chart heavily. On a few occasions there was 2M HIVE converted to HBD in one day.

Cumulative a total of 7.8M HIVE was removed in May 2022.

HBD Created

Here it the chart.

image005.png

The above is a chart for HBD created without the conversions. It includes to following.

  • 10% share of the inflation to the DHF
  • HBD Author Rewards
  • Interest payouts
  • HIVE to HBD conversions
  • Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
  • HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD

Here again we can see that the conversions are dominant when it comes to adding a new supply of HBD.
The HBD created from HIVE transactions to the DHF are now dominant. This comes from the @hbdstabilizer.

The ninja mined HIVE conversions are also adding significant amounts of HBD in the DHF. Note that the HBD in the DHF doesn’t count as debt.

A total of 4.7M HBD was created in May 2022, most of it from HIVE transfers to the DHF from the stabilizer (3.7M) and from the ninja mine conversions in the DHF (0.6M).

HBD Removed

Now let’s take a look at HBD removed. Here is the chart.

image007.png

HBD is mainly removed when converted to HIVE, but also with transfer to @null and setting null as beneficiary on posts rewards.

HBD is being converted to HIVE when the price is below the peg. In May on average there was around 150k per day converted to HIVE and again most of it is from the stabilizer.

HIVE Supply

When all the above is added and removed, we get this chart for the all time HIVE supply.

image009.png

Up until August 2021, the supply was almost steadily increasing with a small fluctuation. Then a huge drop in the supply in August and September 2021. An increase since then and at the end of May we are around 381M HIVE in circulation.

HBD Supply

Here is the chart for the HBD supply.

image013.png

The light color is HBD in the DHF.
As we can see the HBD supply has expanded a lot in 2021, but it has been in the downtrend in the last months.
While the HBD supply in the DHF is growing and it is maintaining the cumulative supply around 24M, the HBD supply excluding the DHF has been going down and now it is around 8.5M HBD. It seems that is found a bottom around that supply.

In the last month the supply of HBD (excluding the DHF), decreased for around -0.5M. As mentioned, it was most because of the conversions to HIVE. With this amount of HBD and the HIVE price the debt is now at 4.2%.

Virtual HIVE Supply

When we add the HIVE equivalent supply from the HBD in circulation to the HIVE supply we get the chart bellow.

image015.png

When we zoom in we get this.

image017.png

The light color is HIVE that in theory can be converted from HBD at the current market prices for HIVE.
We can see that the virtual supply fluctuates quite a lot, mostly because it is tied to the price of HIVE. As the price of HIVE increases, the virtual supply decreases and the opposite.

In May we have a significant increase in the virtual HIVE supply because of the sharp drop in the price of HIVE.

Monthly Inflation

If we plot the monthly inflation, we get this.

image025.png

The red is the HIVE only inflation, the light dark VIRTUAL HIVE inflation, and the whit is the projected inflation.

The monthly inflation for May 2022 is 0.67%. The projected monthly for 2022 is 0.58%. Its slightly above the projected. In the previous month the inflation was 0.44%.
The thing is the virtual HIVE inflation has increased a lot and reached a whooping 6% on a monthly basis. This again because of the fluctuations in the HIVE price.

We can see that the highest the monthly inflation has been is 1.54%, while it has reached negative -3.83% in September 2021.

The yearly inflation, projected and realized looks like this.

Screenshot_1.png

Quite the differences here. Again mainly because of the HBD conversions. In 2019 and 2020 we can see that the realized is quite above the projected, while in 2021 the inflation is negative -2.7%.

2022 is projected at around 7% (0.58% monthly). The first five months are around that number, will see how it goes for the rest of the year, as there is still a lot to come.


Net HIVE Created By Category

Here is the new HIVE put in circulation by category in May 2022.

image027.png

We can see that curation is the number one way for creating HIVE in May 2022.
Conversions comes on the second spot with just above 600k net HIVE created in May 2022. Staking, author and witness rewards comes next.
The fees for account creation and transfers to null are negative but with just a few k HIVE burnt.
The biggest difference in the monthly HIVE inflation comes from the conversions. This month they are positive with more than 600k created. Last month they were negative -50k.
Net HIVE created in May 2022 2.42M.

Monthly inflation just a little bit above projected, virtual hive inflation quite a bit!

All the best
@dalz

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https://twitter.com/Dalz19631657/status/1532690873707814913
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0

Good to see that hive is doing well

Posted using LeoFinance Mobile

0

Up until August 2021, the supply was almost steadily increasing with a small fluctuation. Then a huge drop in the supply in August and September 2021. An increase since then and at the end of May we are around 381M HIVE in circulation.

Supply keep increasing in almost all crypto sector hopefully we can get out if this inflation soon I can't wait for the bull run.

1

I believe we will have more of a crash before we see a bull run.

0

The progress of hive is unstoppable and it is definitely moving to another level

1

didn't realize that Hive inflation was such a variable thing. Also what will be the minimum set inflation, not including conversions ?

1
4 mo

At the moment 7% .... down to 1.5% in 10 years :)

0

so 1,5% is the minimum ?

0
4 mo

With the conversions, there is no minimum ... last year was negative ... the projected at the moment is 7% ... you can see the realized and extrapolated forward on this chart ...

image.png

0

yeah, I got that bit with the conversions, I meant the base value.

0

comprehensive analysis, thanks for sharing

1

It's a good one for hive, thanks for sharing

1

Gracias por este análisis estadístico muy completo, las proyecciones y la recopilación de los datos definitivamente es lo que ayudara a saber si el proyecto será exitoso. Claramente, Hive va por el buen camino. Nuevamente, muchas gracias por hacer este procesamiento de datos y compartirnos a todos.

1

In light of the LUNA/UST debacle, it might be beneficial to add a chart showing HBD market cap (debt) as a % of HIVE market capitalization. UST collapsed when this ratio reached 60%. The Hive blockchain has safeguards that limit HBD issuance when active HBD circulation (excluding liquidity in the DHF) exceeds 10%, but it might still be helpful to see what the current debt of HIVE holders is.

1
1
3 mo

image.png

You can track it live here
https://hive.ausbit.dev/hbd

0

fantastic work! that is really informative.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

1

Good to see you .. although am still new with handling hive but I guess I got some tangible information here

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1

This is what make a blockchain solid.
I imagine you get all this info through the blockchain.
It shows the power behind the availability of Hive to grow in front of everyone.
Still I do not comprehend the inflation of 2.91% from the one you post.
It may have to do with Hive emission as a whole.
Maybe you can write more as you always do about it.

!BEER

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1

From what I thought more hive doesn't get printed when the markets are down right? But it feels like I'm earning MORE hive then ever before at these prices?

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1
4 mo

Do you mean as author and curation rewards?

There is one thing that I wanted to address about the hive inflation and raize the issue on chain. That is the base for calculating the amount of hive inflation as quantity, not a percent. Its the VIRTUAL HIVE inflation. This base increases when prices drop, increasing the amount of hive printed. Not by much, but still it does increase depending on the price drop ... can go up as 10% more inflation.

We really need to discuss these things and made them better. Plus the hbd in the dhf is included in the virtual hive supply, while it is excluded from debt calculations. So we have it both ways.
Hive has been evolving and some things changed, others not, and we have a sort of inconsistency now. I think we need to take only hive as a base for the inflation, not the virtual hive supply.

2

Yep, That's what I was curious on so there can be a inflation or deflation on the price. The other factor for curation and author rewards is lower prices often times means less people posting and commenting and thus the rewards get split out to less poeple? There are a lot of moving parts to hive which I feel many people don't understand.

1

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0

Hey @dalz, here is a little bit of BEER from @pouchon for you. Enjoy it!

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0

Nice one and thanks for sharing this.. I strongly believe in hive

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1

It looks like June could be a great month for HIVE!
Thank you for sharing your report!

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1