Wondering how to get HIVE at 10$?

What gives value to a project? Users maybe?

The title is a bit of clickbait, I admit, but let’s be serious and take a look at some historical user and price data.

The Hive/Steem blockchain has been around for more than 4 years now. This is some nice period and some relevant data can be extracted and conclusions made.

Price

First let’s take a look at the price chart.

The average daily prices are represented on the chart above.

Here is the all time HIVE/STEEM price. Up until the Hardfork it is the STEEM price and after the Hardfork the HIVE price.

When looking at the price, users are usually focused on the all time high, that is more than 7$. The all time average in this case 0.95$.
HIVE/STEEM has been under 1$ for 1038 days, or just under 3 years. If we calculate it as a share, 69% of the time in existence.

The price has been trough a bumpy ride to say at least. Started around 0.3$ – 0.4$, then shout up to a 4$. Down from there to under a 0.1$. Then in 2017 up to 2$ in the first leg, and up to more than 7$ at the end of the year, reaching it ATH. From there we have seen a decline till the recent run to a 1$.

Users

Now let’s see the users’ chart.

The users number showed here are the posting accounts. More accurately accounts that make posts. Comments are excluded.
It is not the only thing a user can do on this blockchain, as there are voting operations, commenting, transactions, custom json etc. For simplicity and better representation, I have used the posting accounts, as the core operation. Also, it makes it easier to query the blockchain from the very start 😊.

The chart represents daily unique accounts that have posted each day, from the very beginning.

The start was humble with a few hundred daily accounts posting. There was increase in the number in July 2016 to more than a 1000 and then slow decline again. In 2017 the numbers went to an 8k daily users posting and then at the end of the year the numbers really took of with more than 30k daily accounts posting. A decline followed that reaching around 4k before the Hardfork, dropped a bit after the HF and it has been growing afterwards.

The daily number of posting accounts can be a bit deceiving, since we know that not everyone is posting each day. It doesn’t mean that those are the number of active users, just daily active users DAU.
For a better picture of the overall active accounts a monthly number of unique posting account in this case is more representative.

Here is the chart for the monthly active users MAU.

From the chart above we can see the number of unique account that made a post at least once per month. The chart follows a similar patter as the daily active accounts although the numbers here are bigger going up to more than 100k active daily account during the bull run. Recently this number is between 10k to 20k active accounts. May 2020 is still not included here as the month is not over yet, but it is showing a sign of growth.

Price VS Users

It is known that as price increases the numbers of active accounts is growing.

But lets take a closer look at this correlation. How many users match the different price levels? Try to answer the question from the title as well 😊.

Here is the overall chart for price VS users (DAU).

The white line is the price, the yellowish are the users.

Quite an overlapping 😊.

Have in mind that the chart above has two axes, and the both numbers are at totally different scale. The chart lines can be look as a correlation between the two, not equally comparable.

Although some interesting points can be extracted from this. At the beginning the number of active accounts was mostly under the price line up until the bull run. After the bull run the number of active accounts is always above the price line, meaning more users are willing to stay around even if the price is not as an attractive.

Another interesting thing is that usually the price is first to take of then the users come back?

Can we do the opposite? Bring more users and then the price to take off.

Let’s zoom a bit to the last year.

The spike in the price after the Harfork is more visible here. Also the drop in the active accounts and the growth afterwards.

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How many users does it take for HIVE to be a 10$?

Some correlation between price and users.

• For a price range between 0.15$ to 0.25$, the number of daily active accounts is on average 2727
• For a price range between 0.45$ to 0.55$, the number of daily active accounts is on average 4120
• For a price range between 0.85$ to 1.15$, the number of daily active accounts is on average 12220
• For a price range between 2$ to 3$, the number of daily active accounts is on average 13600
• For a price above 5$, the number of daily active accounts is on average 23693

Since HIVE has not touched the 10$ mark, from the data above we can extrapolate around 50k daily active users.

A 50k daily active accounts for a 10$ HIVE!

So, there you have it! Let’s bring in a 50k daily active users and we will have a 10$ HIVE.

Just a note here that the math above is just one parameter analysis. It can be totally inaccurate and means nothing. Crypto is a very speculative and volatile asset.

This said I believe that the number of active users is the most important value for a project and a coin. This is why onboarding matters. It matters a lot. If we want to have a sustainable real growth, we need to onboard a lot of new users. Each stakeholder should try to onboard as many users as possible. Communities might be a way forward for this.

What is even more interesting these numbers for daily active users are still low. A 50k daily active users, transposed to monthly is just above 200k. Imagen if we had a million active daily users and a 5 million monthly active users. What will be the price then? That is where the true potential of this platform is.

All the best @dalz