1$ Hive - Well, That Didn't Take Long

Yesterday I wrote a piece about the case for a $8 HIVE. During the night, Hive jumped 50% and it was briefly traded above $1. At the moment of writing it's just 3 cents below that level, exchanging hands at $0.97.

The upwards move was significantly bigger than what I was expected, and faster. The biggest exchange, Upbit, showed a volume of about 105 millions of HIVE (trading at $1, that would be $100 million) during the breakout.

The main technical reasons for this have been already mentioned in yesterday's article (huge demand generated by new accounts created around Splinterlands, and HIVE leaving exchanges being the top drivers, IMHO). So we kinda expected that. The correction, on the other hand, is surprisingly small, suggesting there might still be some room upwards.

The most important question at this moment is: how many holders are willing to sell at these prices (or are forced to do so, because they need liquidity), and how many are willing to hold?

If you have asked me this two months ago, I would have answered that a significant majority wants to sell. There is a certain user pattern here, that literally blogs for money, for immediate value (nothing wrong with that, by the way). For them, an overnight 50% increase in revenue is close to magic, and can result in life changing money.

But the huge wave of new accounts created during the last few weeks is of a different breed. We have no information about their holding / investing patterns, but we do know they're not here to blog for money, primarily, they're here to play a game.

If their behavior is anything close to other gaming platforms, in which the stakeholders are medium to long term participants, we may see a lot more hodling than we're used to see around here.

Which, in turn, will create more demand, which, in turn...

You got the idea.

As always, this is not financial advice, DYOR and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

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