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Now You Can Bet Whether Or Not A Project Will Airdrop Tokens

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Dragos Roua
@dragosroua
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2 min read

It's called Airdrop Futures and it was just launched on Polymarket.

If you don't know what Polymarket is, well, it's a place where users can ask simple questions like: "Will X going to happen?", and then place binary bets on whether or not that thing will actually happen.

Following the latest trends in crypto, Polymarket thought to ask this simple question: "When X project will launch an airdrop?" (or "do you think they will launch an airdrop?") and let users bet on that.

As with any futures projects, this is a way to gain some insight on what users expect, not necessarily on what will happen.

Among the projects for which bets are accepted now there are quite a few popular ones, like MetaMask, OpenSea and Bored Ape Yacht Club, and it's very interesting to see what people think about them. For instance, at the moment of writing, the odds for MetaMask to launch a token were 32 against 68, meaning 32% people thought they will launch a token, while 68% thought they won't.

I can see only one problem with it, but it's a big one. It goes by the name "insider trading", and it means people with knowledge of a certain airdrop happening for sure, like project owners, or team members, have information that will allow them to make huge profits.

Nevertheless, it's a nice development.

Oh, and I didn't see any Cosmos project listed there, which can mean only two things:

  • either Polymarket doesn't know about this ecosystem, which is bad
  • or they know about it but they are 100% sure that each and every single project there will launch a token, which is good. At least that's what happened so far.

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