December 19th 2021 - Two World War One Quotes

“Cheer up, lads. You will be home before the leaves fall from the trees”.
(William II, German Emperor, addressing Imperial German Army soldiers before sending them to the front in August 1914, shortly after the declaration of war)

“Forget everything I taught you.” (Ferdinad Foch, French general and commander of Army Group North, addressing his former students from St. Cyr Military Academy in February 1915)

Although above quotes, at first glance, have little do with cryptocurrencies, anyone slightly familiar with 20th Century military history would hardly to fail to see their relevance to what is going on current crypto markets. In many ways they describe exact sentiments you could have felt in cryptosphere throughout last year, with strong emphasis on what the general sentiment was in its first half and what the sentiment now.

Although Kaiser William’s quote from the exact beginning of World War One might look arrogant in light of what transpired in next four years, it perfectly encapsulated general notion how the conflict would play out, not only in Germany, but throughout the whole world. Everyone expected war to be short affair and, just as Germans expected to enter Paris by Christmas, French expected to do the same with Berlin. With exception of small countries like Serbia, Belgium and Montenegro, strategy of all warring parties was based on massive offensives and huge manoeuvres that were supposed to surprise, outflank and encircle enemies leading to one quick and decisive battle.

That sort of thinking was influenced by past experiences, at least in Europe, which had been, with possible exception of Balkans, spared of major wars and even the most wars between conventional armies were short affairs, decided after single campaign lasting few weeks or few months, usually in one large battle. Everyone expected the Great War to look exactly like that, just like most of crypto pundits and influencers, as well most of the participants in crypto markets, expected this crypto market cycle to play out exactly like previous market cycles in 2013 or 2017.

As Christmas of 2021 approaches, it appears very likely that the major bull run which was to signal the zenith of this bull run, won’t happen. And, just like many generals and politicians before Christmas 1914, many will have to seriously rethink their approach and develop new strategies. Just like the development of modern technology and new logistical challenges of 1910s made 19th Century strategy and tactics obsolete, COVID-19, supply disruptions, inflation and new geopolitical challenges are wrecking the old crypto market models.

Ferdinand Foch was before the actual war one of France’s most eloquent and influential military theoreticians and creators of national war strategy. That strategy, like those of its enemies, was shattered after few months. Foch, who is considered one of the greatest military leaders from that sad and bloody period, was one of the first to confront this reality and one of the few to admit that he had been wrong. In the end, unlike Kaiser Wilhelm, he was victorious.

Cryptosphere, which is going to face many new and unexpected challenges in years to come, would need more people like Foch and less people like Kaiser Wilhelm.

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