SuperLab updates! Just 4k LABFUND tokens left on the market
We are running a Super Laboratory account within dCity, I tokenized it so that multiple accounts I manage could participate independently. You might think of this as 'Phase 3' for dCity, and this project (as well as ARMERO) are a way to build into the endgame of dCity, at least at far as the citizen loop is concerned.
Let's take a look today to see the results of our first few days of @superlab.
Yes, we now have 1540 War shares, that should amount to around 34000 SIM per day, already we have had some pretty good luck with the SUPER CITIZENS, and we can break down the math for that in a moment.
Also notice that by keeping a certain amount of Sick Citizens around and slowly growing some of our pieces, we have reached a total income of over 7000 SIM per day.
These total 41,000 SIM income or 14.555 HIVE per day based on my napkin math. Extrapolate this to a year and you can see that 5312.575 HIVE is the number we have to compare to other things. Like - how many LABFUND tokens have sold?
So far 5912 LABFUND tokens have sold, leaving 4088 on the market. We don't need to sell out, but we might, there is still time I am being as patient as I can be while also sucking up as many citizen tokens as I have been able to, as we shall see a little further down.
So this means our fund is 5912 in value!
HIVE on hand
Well, yes kind of, but we are still taking our position with as much patience as we can muster. We have a lot of that HIVE still on hand or on the order books for SIM. The current president has lowered the taxes so we might see a nice dip to buy SIM, or at least I would feel foolish if I spent all the HIVE and then we did see one, that would be an unforced error for sure.
So we are holding back, pushing forward, but not yet with our full might. We have 1785.88 HIVE on hand/buy-orders.
Which means our project has only really pushed 4126.12 HIVE into the pipe of our @superlab strategy. The following will be a breakdown of what those 4126.12 HIVE have so far yielded. For reference 4126.12 HIVE is equivalent to 11'622,873 SIM (at 0.00035 hive/sim token price).
- SIM on hand
- ARMERO tokens
- dCity cards
SIM on hand
We need to get from HIVE, into SIM and back to HIVE, this is the goal, and there might be some stops in between, like between citizen NFT tokens. The same thing with HIVE waiting on the order books to buy SIM, we have 1'482,186 SIM on the market books waiting to buy cards, mostly citizens. This is due to increase as we have bought hundreds of citizens from dozens of players so far.
We also have 922,296 SIM in the wallet, for a total of 2'404,482 SIM on hand or 20.68% of the invested value.
ARMERO tokens
ARMERO project is the building of a sanitorium city, a health respite for sick citizens to go to, in order to spend their days in peace. Next week I will be releasing some automation allowing any player in dCity to turn certain dCity NFT tokens into ARMERO tokens by sending them to @armero - this isn't quite ready yet and is still being tested. Nonetheless @armero continues to grow and get on its feet and is now the 4th ranked account in SIM income.
For the time being, suffice it to say that I think that these ARMERO tokens are worth at least 730 SIM per token, and @superlab now has 8500 of them, for sending 8500 Sick Citizens in to the Sanitorium. At 730 SIM per token these are worth 6'205,000 SIM or 53.38% of the invested value.
OUR CITY - CARDS
According to the dCity estimator, the rest of our city is worth 31'563,740 SIM, or 271.56% of the invested value. How can we interpret this? In a sense, our holdings are up 3.5x in just this short period. The numbers are even possibly a slight bit better, as we have one of each super citizen listed on the market making a market, and we actually did sell one Super Soldier for 260,000 SIM. We will continue to make markets for these Super Citizens as part of our SuperLab role.
So lets look a bit closer at the super citizens:
The super soldiers are the real prizes, as they are the ones giving the War Shares, but all of the Super citizens are better than Sick citizens.
Let's do an analysis, with 8500 ARMERO tokens and 1619 sick citizens we have 10,119 fails and adding the ones on the market and the one S.Soldier who got sold, we have 381 'successes'. 381/10,500 = 3.6% success rate.
For any given 1000 citizens experimented on, we can consider an average of 964 Sick Citizens, which we are valuing at 730 SIM through the ARMERO project, and so their expected value would be 703,720 SIM.
Depending on your luck, and the distribution of Super Soldiers among the super citizens, so far 20.7% of our successes have been Super soldiers (79/381), for an average of 7.5 Super soldier per 1000 citizen experimented. If Super Soldiers really can be valued at 260,000 SIM each this is 1'950,000 in value just from the Super Soldiers (our luck with Super Soldiers will determine the largest part of the ROI in this!). Note that new Super Soldiers do not cause new SIM printing, they just dilute the same War Shares pool that exists, so that is something to be said to the sustainability of this whole operation of burning SIM to fight over the same sized pool.
As far as the other Super Citizens go....
SuperLab has some up for sale, we have proposed a price in order to make a market, but none have been bought or sold yet. We will use the lowest number (7500 sim) to set the rate for Expected value of the three other citizens, the Super Cop, Super Criminal and the Super Citizen, fall at 28.7 times per thousand for an expected value of 215,250 SIM.
So our total expected value (EV) for experimenting on 1000 citizens is:
- 703,720 SIM
- 1'950,000 SIM
- '+ 215,250 SIM = 2'868,970 SIM
What about the costs?
Each experiment costs 300 SIM, meaning there is a 300,000 SIM upfront cost for each 1000 citizens you experiment on. On the market we will soon be pushing up the floor price for citizens from 320 SIM to 325 SIM - many players are finding that it is quite profitable to sell their workers to us and buy basic homes. Our average acquisition price is closer to 360 SIM right now, or 360,000 SIM per 1000 citizen.
Expected value of 2'868,970 SIM for each 660,000 SIM spent
434.69% - I'm not joking. This is real. We have the Experimental Labs to do it and I am happy to keep doing it. Obviously this raw 434% number is getting dulled by the infrastructure costs (other cards) that are needed to extract maximum returns out of all of these cards. But most of these are fixed costs, so the more throughput we do, the better our returns will be.
There are still just over 4000 LABFUND tokens available on hive-engine check them out and consider to take this ride with us during the winter-crypto-bear market. Or consider mining citizens with a dCity starter city!
I hope I have laid it all out for you - are there any questions? We have perhaps the rest of this month, and then we will be closing the LABFUND sales and locking in numbers, and starting this rollercoaster. Getting on is easy (and fun!) but getting off is the part that requires the most skill!
