Unipolar vs Multipolar: From Currency to Politics, what the US mainstream doesn't seem to understand about the future.
Bitcoin is the King of Crypto, as the US Dollar is still the undisputed worldwide currency used in international settlements. In GeoPolitics, we see the US emerging from the Cold War around 1991 as a Uni-Polar power, and still trying to hang on to that fact in 2021, even as China and Russia are pushing for a Multi-Polar future.
I suppose when you are the King, you have the most to lose, but that's not the way the game is supposed to be played. A rising tide is supposed to lift all boats, and an increasingly abundant pie is supposed to replace the Zero-Sum cake, because as we all know, 'The Cake is a Lie'.
I can't take full credit for this, I have been reading a lot of geopolitical analysis where this 'UniPolar vs MultiPolar' analysis becomes clear, so clear in fact because it is indeed what the diplomats on each side are saying! I can highly recommend anything by Pepe Escobar, including this most recent piece: Who wants a Hot War?
The wonderfully Eurasian-centric Escobar also explores the interconnectedness happening in Eurasia as Multi-Polar development continues at a brisk pace. Many in the US would be well served reading Pepe Escobar: How Eurasia will be interconnected, and do it while examining your globe or World Map.
As a Unipolar power, and with the 'everything to lose' perspective, the US seems to be attempting to maintain as much force as it can muster brought to bear in key strategic pressure points. Ukraine and Nordstream 2 in eastern europe, Taiwan and South China sea in South Asia. Of course there is steady pressure and bluster about the Artic regions, and tons of blather about so-called 'cyber', which presumably exists within the hard-to-quantify digital realms.
And very real things are happening in these digital realms, even as most of the hacking stories are nonsense, as its much more believable that the hacks they report are staged, and the hacks they never tell us about are the real ones. But think back for a moment about Steem vs Hive, think about BSC vs ETH. In both cases, while arising differently, a billionaire in China has basically made a centralized version of existing decentralized blockchain software, and have been quite successful.
Don't forget Luongo's brilliant analysis of family office 'tactical nukes' like Archegos blowing up the financial system. From his more recent piece:
There are big moves being made by big movers. And it can often come upon us to feel strongly in an 'Us vs Them' mentality. Because of course, HIVE exists, even if STEEM continues to produce blocks in some centralized way. And in a certain way if STEEM would die, it would be better for HIVE, and if HIVE would die it would be better for STEEM, in the way that it is 'better' for a company to have monopoly power over their particular market.
But we don't accept this when it comes to market even though it is better for the company, we reject (or we used to at least) monopolies because they are bad for outcomes on the whole. And we definitely should reject it when it comes to geopolitics.
No matter what's good for US or THEM, its better for everyone to have more options on the table!
On each of a billion small issues, human beings are already competing among themselves and even with themselves to improve their conditions. The wrong way to do this is by taking from someone else, violating their rights. The right way is by making Discoveries and Inventions, to which I will add the very important task of properly implementing the discoveries and inventions made by others.
In this way, the 'size of the pie' is growing all the time, and billions of creative beings are working to learn (and teach), discover, invent, and implement a better future, a 'more satisfactory state of affairs' into the world. This is the essence of a multi-polar world! Can we call it competitive improvement?
Bitcoin vs Alts
For those of us who have been in the crypto space for awhile, this can be seen clearly in the relationship between Bitcoin and Altcoins. Bitcoin is the King, and has been the King, and there are those who believe it will always bee the King! And even though in the very narrow term, a heavy pump of the bitcoin price will first draw down alts as many seek the momentum trade by sacking their alts for sats, in the end, a bitcoin bull market is what has mooned countless altcoins over and over and over.
Bitcoin needs alts because it cannot do everything, it cannot even improve very quickly. Alts need bitcoin, it came first and made everything possible, and still serves as a gateway into the very realm itself. All should now be aware that these temporary movements of 'Bitcoin Dominance' exist within in a fast-growing 'pie' of financial possibilities, this is why we who are here love it so much.
But how about the US Dollar? Its always on edge about being knocked out of its place, and so many people have been arguing about whether or not Bitcoin can replace the dollar. But even though Bitcoin has a much smaller carbon footprint than the traditional banking sector and in fact is surprisingly environmentally friendly, anyone imagining bitcoin replacing the dollar has a very weird conception of how markets work, and where they work - which is on the margin.
Marginal Utility
The concept of measuring utility on the margin derives from the realization that the utility (the benefit caused by something) is diminishing as quantity goes up. The first slice of pizza always tastes better than the 7th, same with beer and birthday cake and even nuclear missles.
As new currencies come about, people sometimes stop using the old ones. There does appear to be something of a natural rotation between trust-backed or fiat-backed currencies and gold or other precious instruments. Historically, no fiat-backed currency has stood the test of time. And when it comes time to switch into something new, these changes happen on the margin.
First, the people most motivated to leave the current system, those least served by it, will leave. They achieve the most marginal utility by leaving and so they do it first. This is all very obvious. In a multi-polar world, in a free world, people come and go as they choose, using what tools are perceived to be useful to them at the time to, again 'bring about a more satisfactory state of affairs'.
This is as true for Bitcoin as it is for the e-Yuan
Consider today's news from China that It Has No Desire To Replace Dollar As Global Reserve Currency With Digital Yuan, which if you live in a multi-polar world, is very believable.
From the article:
While on the margin, some Uzbekistan or Mongolian residents may opt to use an e-Yuan instead of US dollars, that is not the same as 'dethroning the dollar'. China enjoys to a large extent its capital controls over its currency, which are some of the strictest in the world. They may tighten them or loosen them, they may even give out TRX tokens to anyone who uses e-Yuan, like Steem now does. They can do whatever they want, and anyone who uses these platforms should be deeply aware of this.
The same can be said of the US dollar! It has achieved, by hook or by crook, a privileged position in the world, based largely on the fact that it has been very beneficial, on the margin, for vast swathes of the world to participate in this system.
But this system, overarchingly referred to by western diplomats as 'The Rules based International Order' is neither very old nor very stable. In fact competition is well underway and many 'better options' have begun to be investigated, developed and spun up all around the world, including crypto-currencies, local currencies, supply chain analysis and the decentralized and open source movements. This is all the result billions of individuals trying to make the world slightly better, not as a result of some conspiracy of 'them'.
It is my desperate hope that multi-polar modes of thinking prevail, but the Anglo alliance appears to have every motivation to use its power not for improvement, but instead to stymie the improvement, to hold on to chaffing and broken ways of being.
If we are to pray, then, let us pray for our diplomats to be suddenly and powerfully overcome with the words of Jesus in Matthey 7:3, You can see the speck in your brother's eye, but you don't notice the log in your own eye. It is through this sense of mutual respect and mutual improvement that we can correct America's fallen and fallacious political philosophy of uni-polar dominance.
But neither can we make the mistake of assuming there is a 'Good side' and a 'Bad side'. This simplistic thinking can lead to all sorts of incorrect conclusions, like if we suddenly are not the 'Good Guys', then does that mean that the Chinese are wonderful and virtuous? The discussion on the Chinese can become a lot more subtle if we just recognize a multi-polar world where we are all working to become better all the time.
We aren't the good guys, they aren't the good guys. Just thinking that there are good guys leads to poor outcomes! There are infinitely more than 'two views'. Blue versus Red is a classic UniPolar view of the world. Its time to move on to more productive perspectives.
Freedom and Friendship
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