Market Watch: BOO!

The path to moon is long and arduous.

Always has been.
Always will be.

I just couldn't do it, could I?

Bought in at 43 cents instead of waiting for my actual target. Remember what my actual target was?
37 cents.
DURP!

STICK TO THE PLAN

Easier said than done amirite?

Hive is finding support at the MA(100), just like I said it might given a much-needed market pullback. I say "much-needed" in this case because timelines weren't actually making a lot of sense when we compare this action to the 2019 summer rally. Now we basically have plenty of time to chop sideways in March and perhaps into mid April as well. It will be nice to get tax season over with. I imagine returns are going to be much larger given the fact that 2022 was one of the worst trading years ever... for bulls. All risk-on assets were completely rampaged.

Support for Hive in the 35-37 cent range is thick.

Unfortunately Bitcoin is still "towering" above $20k near $22k and can still crash 10% more even in the bullish hard-bounce scenario. I was hoping by the time Hive got down to this support buffer Bitcoin would also be at the major support line, but that's not how it worked out.

Short term bearish scenario:

Given another 10% dip on Bitcoin down to $20k we have to assume that Hive support would not be able to hold. Hive has a very rich history of capitulation during such moments. We have to assume that Hive would also crash at least 10%, and perhaps even 20% from here (probably 10% though). That's a range of 33.7 cents to 30 cents. Looking at the chart it appears as though 31.5 cent support is pretty strong, which falls right between that range.

Short term bullish scenario:

Bitcoin is looking a lot more bullish than Hive, so that's something.

Support at $21.5k has been doubled tapped, and Goddess Moon is still trading the market it seems. We peaked on the exact day of the New Moon and are now finding Full Moon support at this level. Always fun to trigger the more scientific minds on Hive with my pointless and lazy attempt at astrology TA. But honestly though if we recover from here the timeline will sync up pretty perfectly.

It's also easy to see that Bitcoin dropped three times in a waterfall/staircase pattern, which is pretty typical for retracements. It's also forming a descending wedge which ends up being bullish like 90% of the time.

Mid term strategy.

All these movements are largely noise, no matter how annoying they are. I've committed to holding everything until the month of May finally arrives and I can refactor. If I'm being honest I'm not even sure if I'm rooting for a summer rally like the one we got in 2019. I'd honestly rather just wait till the end of the year. November is a killer volatility month that has disappointed for 2 years in a row. My 40th birthday demands better price action that than. I guess I'm old now. How did that happen? I don't feel old. Life is weird.

A reminder about professional gambling.

If you see an "influencer" that claims they make good calls 90% of the time: they are lying. They are also typically trying to sell you a trading program that makes the same claim. It is statistically impossible to get this big of an edge when it comes to gambling.

A 5% edge is all you need.

Expert-level gamblers only need to win 55% of the time to make a killing in competitive PvP markets. The trick is volume. Make 100 good trades. Win 55 : Lose 45. Profit. The best edge one can ever hope to achieve is around 10% with a 60% win rate. This require master-level tactics and steady unflinching hands; a rare quality indeed.

That slot machine hasn't paid out in a while...

The merits of a gambling decision can not be decided after the fact. This makes it very difficult to accurately calculate EV (the estimated value of any given play on the average) as one can easily make a smart gamble and lose three times in a row simply to bad luck. This can mess with our heads and make us think we are making the wrong play when we actually aren't.

Another thing to remember is that given any gambling scenario only around 10% of the player base is actually going to have a decent amount of success on average. The nice thing about crypto is that you can suck at gambling and still win because number keeps going up exponentially on average. This is why being bearish on crypto and taking loans against it on margin is extremely risky in the long term.

On the Federal Reserve side of this equation we can see that Powell made some more hawkish statements that have spooked traders a bit. "More aggressive rate hikes". Yeah... good luck with that. Something is going to break and whatever it is, it's going to be worse than "inflation".

We must always remember that the market is constantly trying to price everything in all the time using the information available to it. Markets move at lightspeed while the floundering economy is a lumbering turtle, which can lead very strange timelines where fundamentals and speculation very rarely sync up together at the same time. The broken clock is only right twice a day.

Everyone is waiting for that other shoe to drop. All signals point to rough times ahead, but how many of those signals are already priced in today? It's a bit unclear. Do we think the market is currently overestimating or underestimating the current situation we are in? Again, it's hard to say, but we do know that there is a dollar shortage on the world-stage, and higher rates make this shortage even more compounded. Demand to issue/incur debt is dwindling and current debts are struggling. Something has to give.

Conclusion

This dip is annoying, but March has always been a disappointing month full of chop and very boring price action. It's what comes after March that matters. As long as Bitcoin doesn't dip below $20k I'm not worried in the slightest bit and consider us to be in a near ultra-bullish recovery phase littered with disbelief.

At the same time we've already seen Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market at these levels, which is nice to see. Seems to be the more oversold Bitcoin is the more it decouples, while the more overbought it is the stronger the correlation gets. Makes sense considering that legacy money has more power during the bull market cycles as they pump money in and out of risk-on assets.

For the most part this just seems like a "hunker down and do nothing" period of time. This is something that the Hive community has a lot of experience with. Hold on for dear life to the rickety lifeboat and position ourselves in a way that doesn't lead to distressed selling. This is the way.

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta