Market Watch: Knocking Hard on $40k

Market Watch:

Technically Bitcoin is still trading within range ($30k-$40k) but the momentum shift during this past week has been nothing but spectacular. Honestly, I don't understand why so many analysts seem to think that descending triangles are bearish. I guess consistently going down in price and making lower highs has that effect on people.

My personal experience with descending triangles is that they breakout to the upside more than 75% of the time. The opposite is true of ascending triangles, which break to the downside just as often in my experience. Add another tally to the bullish descending triangle column.

We still have massive resistance at the $45k level, so it should be interesting to see how we interact with that level , or if we can even break out of this range (which I assume we will do easily at this point).

As far as these ~2-week trading cycles are concerned, we still have another 13 days of 'up' until the next new moon on August 8th. I'll be waiting to refactor my thoughts based on how high we climb in that timespan.

Dominance.

It's also important to note that this is not an alt-market rally. Bitcoin dominance is rising, which means the bulk of the money is coming in from the outside and largely just going into Bitcoin, which the trading bots are making sure to dump back out to the alts a little bit as they often do. Trickle-down theory in full effect.

This heavily implies that the money coming in right now is institutional in nature and has strings attached to it, ones that likely keep that value locked into BTC for now, but still causing overflow to the larger market as liquidity gets displaced.

This theory makes a lot of sense considering all the adoption coming in from corporations and governments. Regulated money is regulated. Bitcoin is the most regulated crypto asset with the most mature legacy infrastructure, allowing institutional value to flow more freely there, but it gets locked out of the rest of the market.

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now.

The alt-market might not outperform Bitcoin until Bitcoin stops rallying up and trades flat in consolidation mode. There's a fair chance that August is a great month for Bitcoin and the alts don't catch up until September. Unfortunately this assumes that September will trade sideways instead of down, which only seems to be the case around half the time. I think I'll be able to make a better determination on that front once we get to the end of August.

$100k DISASTER

Everyone has their eyes plastered onto this $100k unit-bias level for Bitcoin. Honestly, it has reached peak toxicity levels, with half of #cryptotwitter changing their profile pictures to "laser eyes" until we hit the $100k milestone.

To reiterate, this $100k six-figure level means nothing in terms of actual analysis. It's just a stupid unit-bias level that people decided was important. This means that a bear-trap has been set up in advance. It's almost guaranteed that panic selling will occur at this range and likely causes a standard 20%-30% dip that can be capitalized on. The real mega-bubble cap at the end of the year is around $250k-$400k max. Don't sell early because of laser eyes and unit-bias.

Conclusion

I took too long writing this and Bitcoin has already broken $40k on Coinbase... Oops. $45k here we come.

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta

Edits:

Just wanted to add some stuff here after posting to the chain...

Sellers seem to have returned now that we are attempting to break resistance within the $30k-$40k range. Volume is way up. It's been quite a long time since we've seen volume go up from buying pressure as opposed to selling pressure. Quite the reversal.

Definitively trading in the same established range we've been in for months, but a break above seems to be in the cards over the next week.