Posts

Does corona mark the death of the United states?

avatar of @firstamendment
25
@firstamendment
·
0 views
·
6 min read

This blog if you are looking for a definite answer to the above question provides none. Such measures are beyond my skills at this time. I am merely asking a question to encourage thought.

according to https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/policy-basics-where-do-federal-tax-revenues-come-from

the usa collects taxes in 3 main categories, and miscellaneous. Also the feds collected 3.3 trillion dollars in tax revenue in fy 2018. Income tax 51% (1.61T) payroll tax 35% (1.155T) corporate income tax 6% (198B)
and 8% other. (264B)

This Corona virus is affecting stock market value, it is depleting corporate revenues, and as wealth disappears it is harming the ability to raise revenue, and if companies can't turn a profit they may look to reduce costs/payroll. On a positive side, if crypto weakens too much, it might be a good indication to do an ICO if you expect it to be strong later.

I am sure there will be some sectors that do well. food, medical, weed, alcohol.

Much of the harm to the USA is disproportional. We've hardly been hit directly by Corona. There is a vast amount of disinformation out of Hubei china and the new cases in Iran has likely erroneous reports of death rates exceeding 3%, when the actual rate is closer to .8%. Older data had the death rate outside of Hubei at under .2%. The new cases in Iran may demonstrate that people who might have thought they had the flu never was checked for Corona. Remember a few weeks ago I was saying that the United states deserves to fail for going with with the impeachment instead of paying attention to Corona. Iran lost a vice President to Corona, and an ambassador, and they weren't bogged down by impeachments-at least not that I am aware of. Regimes need to pay attention to things like this, less they are doomed to fail.

But anyways onto the numbers and charts: The global death rate is: 3.419%. (2867 deaths out of 83861) In Hubie China is: 4.079% (2682 out of 65914) In Iran: 8.763 (34 deaths out of 388) The rest of China is : .821% (106 out of 12910) The world outside of Hubie China: 1.031% (185 deaths out of 17947) outside of China itself (79 out of 5037) The world outside of China and and Iran: .75% (35 out of 4649 ) The world outside of Hubei and Iran: .854% (150 out of 17559)

https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVyabADST1M44wtuMCmn5sLyi8KrGRXx497YpUBLJ1byT/image.png https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNgooe2n6FtsiViTfKw3QfqhcLX2GdyC4oihL6emSnx5f/image.png
https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSdT75iikWTcUZ3jbARnsLAwudNYFoWf7EgWxjSDB6kBM/image.png https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfDuwh3RoigJGiSdgJSdi6C3uxv7XpbK9mbJUeLMHQbMP/image.png

Why the death rate outside of Hubei (and now outside of Iran) has creeps back up to about .8 from under .2? Maybe there is another nation that hasn't fully diagnosed people with the infection. Maybe enough time hadn't elapsed to reach some kind of asymptotic level at the time. Maybe a little of both. Italy death rate is about 2.5% (17 in 655). Hong Kong about 2.1% (2 in 94). Japan is about 1.30 (6 in 288) Taiwan about 3.3% (1 death in 33 cases). France is about 5% (2 out of 41). South Korea (13 out of 2337) is about half a percent. In the Philippines it is 33% (1 death out of 3 infected). I don't see a fatality reported yet elsewhere, maybe I missed something.

But nonetheless outside of the initial period of unpreparedness and incomplete stats, Corona isn't as bad as the experts want us to believe, but it is worse than what I had previously understood when the death rates were under .2. And it is heavily politicized. The media chewed out Rush Limbaugh for saying Corona is the common cold. Technicalities aides, a few weeks ago outside of Hubei it was about as bad as two flus seasons. People are calling trump an idiot for not taking Corona seriously and saying there was a vaccine on their way. The media was upset saying he was incoherent about the Corona and wrong about a vaccine. Granted Trump doesn't know as much as we would all like him too, but he listens and learns quickly which makes up for his deficits and helps makes him an effective leader. In the case of vaccines, it turns out he knew perhaps more than the press did. An Israeli company has been working on a Carona vaccine for chickens, and plan to make a batch for this one. but will the media shame themselves for not being as educated as Trump on the topic? To trump's detriment, he imposed a gag over what governmental experts are allowed to say. Nearly the same mistake China made-only the courts can't gag us civilians yet for telling the truth...Oh wait, we have the Joe Biden family courts that does just that. Meanwhile the CDC makes decisions behind the presidents back including inviting those under quarantine back into the USA, and the people in the process were never trained in infection diseases and didn't use preventative measures. You can certainly bet that Corona Virus will be heavily politicized election issue this year, and both sides will say to hell with the market place in the quest for power. Even house republicans walked out of a meeting on Corona when all the democrats did was Bash Trump. All that Trump bashing will backfire if Corona reaches Latin/South America (which remains untouched at last look) and creeps its way along the US border. Fault will be found on both sides.

The markets are in a cycle of Going to hell over something that might be the equivalence of 8 years worth of the flu. After the dust settles a bit, there might be a few gems based entirely on valuation and the fundamentals. In an age of magical crypto wealth, who would think fundamentals matter? But a hell of a lot of wealth is being evaporated in the process. How much wealth I cannot tell, how many people will be laid off (collecting unemployment) I dunno, how much lost tax revenue this will result in I cannot predict either. What tools are left to stimulate the economy when taxes have already been cut and the interest rate is near zero? Quantitative easing; more inflation?

There are of course other problems. Australia became God's bbq grill, Africa is plagued by locust. China had the swine flu and bird flu-and wu flu. Quarentined nations are left to buy food elsewhere. Corona scares are emptying store shelves in multiple countries. By all means buy dry foods and frozen foods now and face masks. These are rational things to do now before you have to compete with a bunch of panic driven irrational people. You can expect food inflation and shortages later this year, and if the overall inflation goes up, so does social security and other benefits like food stamps. If social security goes up so will government spending.

But if the markets don't return to common sense then our deficits could take a heavy blow. Confidence in the dollar could evaporate. All America has is the almighty dollar, and a bunch of retards on arm chairs thinking they are God's gift to the world saying everything is wrong-oh wait a minute-or in a bathing suit thinking they are God's gift to the world. Really corporate America, why do you stay here when we are an economic joke, governed by the worse (democrats and federalist), and backed by paper as a currency? Call us for what we are and get out.

Anyways the point I am trying to drive is that how people are reacting to the idea of the disease could be worse than the disease itself. Certainly the disease is bad, contagious, and deadly, but It hasn't even reach the point yet of the flu, but already there are quarantines, gags, and global panic. The reported spread of the disease in china, whatever that is worth, has about stagnated. It doesn't mean it can't get worse than the flu. Just that so far things have been disproportional. Is this a trial run for greater global social controls in the future? I don't think so, but nonetheless worrisome. The panic and the political scene could be very painful for Americans this year. A recession likely, a depression might be probable. At some point the federal deficits and lack of confidence in the dollar will hit the event horizon until we are a third world nation. If it doesn't happen due to corona, the arrival of the event horizon has been accelerated.