Bitcoin Has Reached 16k USD... Will You Wait Some More Or Do You Already Buy Again?

A Delayed Case Of FOMO

I was rather lucky so far with my Bitcoin investment, although the amount wasn't particularly high. After waiting out the first boom and high at around 20k USD at the end of 2017, I decided to go in when Bitcoin was close to its intermediate minimum at 3,500 USD. The price I paid was some 1,900 USD for half a Bitcoin. It was a significant amount of money for me, but I was emotionally driven (which you shouldn't be) as I heard about Bitcoin at a very early stage and was intrigued by it, but hesitated to go the risk.

Lucky Me: 2,000 USD Became 28,000 USD

Finally, I saw the writing on the wall shortly before the next peak arrived. I sold my half Bitcoin in Q1 of 2021, when the price was at 54k USD. It went up a bit further afterwards and then before completely crashing even bounced back to its current all-time high for a brief moment, but I was rather satisfied with my profit of more than 2700%. I guess, everyone has this kind of financial luck once in his lifetime and that was mine. It wasn't a million, but big enough to get rid of a couple of hurdles in the path of my personal long-term projection.

80% Down Is When I Buy

When the boom cycle broke in mid 2021, it was obvious to me that Bitcoin inevitably would go down the same way as it did in the phase between 2018 and 2020. My calculation was that I would consider buying again as soon as Bitcoin fell by around 80-85% from its all time high. The reason for that is because this was the case both after the all-time high in 2018 and at the end of 2013, when Bitcoin really put itself on the market place for the first time.

One Year From Top To Bottom

Now, thanks to another large-scale scam in the sphere, the price for Bitcoin is down again at 16,500 USD. It both means that we are not there, yet, but also that the bottom should be reached relatively soon. In both cases, 2013 and 2018, it took around one year for Bitcoin to go from top to bottom. Bitcoin's last all-time high is now almost exactly one year old and we are now 75% below that level.

Do you see where I am going with this?

If The Past Is Any Judge, then...

In difference to other years, I believe that Bitcoin may reach its intermediate low at some point in upcoming December or January. The price target for the new low would be around 12,000 USD per Bitcoin. This would be in alignment with past long-term patterns of the Bitcoin price during a bear market. Of course, this is all but certain as it only considers the past while assuming similar behavioral patterns on the side of the market players and surrounding. Especially the latter seems to have changed dramatically in recent years. Therefore it certainly won't be 2,000 USD that I will buy Bitcoin with again.

The End Of The Bitcoin Fool?

I'm also not sure though if Bitcoin will shoot up to the same degree again as it did in the past. Given all the scandals, scams and volatility, there seems to slowly creep in a saturation point meaning there's not enough fools anymore who are either naive or gamblers. If I had to guess, then I would project the next all-time high at perhaps 80,000 USD per Bitcoin. For me, by entering at 12,000 USD this would still would be a fairly profitable endeavor. The expected outlook to 600% in profit would even justify that the latest scams might have put an end to Bitcoin's boom phases in general as there are simply too many eager investors who got scammed out of their money.

Maybe I'll buy for 1,000 USD this time - provided of course Bitcoin will drop even lower than right now and won't be outlawed in the upcoming months.