Another factor which may keep bitcoin from taking off temporarily

When bitcoin took a dip - and with it the entire crypto market - people found various reasons why.

There's the immediately plausible explanation that the bitcoin dive was triggered by the same type of movement in the stocks market. Yes, bitcoin and crypto are still correlated to stocks. Which should probably give us something to reflect on if stocks crash at some point.

Bitcoin was also due for a 30%-ish correction according to previous models which seem to still hold in this regard, even if we didn't have a 30% drop yet, but only a little over 24%.

I'm actually curious if we'll have a 30% drop this time, because Michael Saylor said "40k bitcoin is gone forever" and a 30% drop would test that psyhological resistence level.

But here's another factor.

March 1st is the settlement date for the 6-months bitcoin futures (and options) contracts from CME.

^{Screenshot from CMEGroup website.}

I don't know what kind of volume we are talking that is about to be settled, but I'm sure CME would love to pay less on the settlement day.

Since settlements on CME are done in fiat and not in bitcoin, a less expensive bitcoin means CME will pay less fiat to holders of the futures contracts on the settlement day, which is March 1st. And they certainly won't pay 60k or more per bitcoin as it may have been the case if the correction didn't happen.

Days prior to the settlement of futures contracts are often - but not always - volatile in the crypto market, because players in the futures market want to manipulate the price of bitcoin to their benefit.

Since on CME, the largest futures market for bitcoin so far, settlements are in fiat, that usually means attempting to provoke a dip to pay less.

A 24% reduction of expenses isn't something to ignore. If they haven't provoked or helped with the correction, I'm sure they're cheering for it.

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta