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Which Hive-Engine Portfolio Performs Best in a Bear Market?

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A few weeks back, an experimental idea came up. I asked a couple fellow Hive-Enginers to pick a portfolio of Hive-Engine tokens. The idea is to choose a list of tokens to invest in, and see which basket of tokens performs the best over the next 6 months. The discussion started before this nuclear winter bear market, so we're doing it LIVE!

[BEARS image source: pixabay]

The Experiment - 3 Wallets And Some Code

3 new wallets were created, and funded with 16 SWAP.HIVE each to start. It's not much to start with for this first round. We'll go bigger next time, and we want to see results for a bull market, too!

Some code was written to manage the portfolios. Once a week the code will check if the tokens in the portfolio have deviated more than 1% from their target allocation (using a constant-weighting asset allocation strategy). If a token has increased in portfolio value by more than 1% (of the total portfolio value), the code sells some tokens. On the other hand, if a token has decreased in portfolio value by more than 1%, the code buys some. This is a weekly rebalance.

The Portfolios - 3 Unique Baskets of Tokens

The portfolios chosen look like this:

  • Wallet name: @d401d (a traditional basket) 30% BTC, 30% ETH, 10% MATIC, 5% DHEDGE, 5% BRO, 5% LEO, 15% HIVE

  • Wallet name: @b401 (a game-token-focused basket) 20% SPS, 10% SIM, 10% DEC, 10% BUDS, 10% STARBITS, 10% CROP, 10% PIZZA, 20% HIVE

  • Wallet name: @h401 (a hybrid basket - some top 10 coins and some game tokens) 5% PIZZA, 10% SPS, 10% LTC, 10% BTC, 10% BNB, 10% WAX, 10% ETH, 5% LEO, 10% DOGE, 20% HIVE.

This experiment is kicking off today, and a rebalance will happen every Wednesday going forward. We decided to measure the portfolio values using the current BID price of tokens. After working through some initial hiccups, here are the initial standings, after trading 16 SWAP.HIVE for other tokens. The values are lower than 16 SWAP.HIVE because of the decision mentioned above (tokens have a noticeable spread between BID and ASK).

Initial Standings - Week 0

  • @d401d
    • Total value: 14.572405 SWAP.HIVE
  • @b401
    • Total value: 15.097150 SWAP.HIVE
  • @h401
    • Total value: 15.537365 SWAP.HIVE

I'm excited to share updates for this experiment with you over the next 6 months. Which basket do you think will perform the best?

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