The Ongoing Nickel Saga: Time to Hoard Nickels?
The Sudden SPIKE in Nickel Prices
What was supposed to be a 24 hour trading suspension has become extended to the end of the week. The London Metal Exchange is concerned about what will happen when the Nickel market opens up again.
Nickel is traded by metric tons and is usually traded around $10K - $20K. Suddenly, without warning, nickel spiked up OVER $100K before trading was terminated. We don't know how high it would have gone if the market wasn't immediately shut down.
The current "offical" price is frozen at $43K. This is so the media can say "2x" or "doubled" so as not to alarm everyone.
Why did they freeze trading? Why has the freeze been extended until the end of the week? What do they know that we don't know?
A Reassuring Forecast
The website Trading Economics assures the public that once trading is resumed, nickel prices will return to normal levels.
There are several problems with this chart. First is that the spike up STOPS at 43K, when in reality it exceeded $100K. Second, we don't know how long nickel trading will be suspended. At first it was 24 hours, now it's 96 hours, what will be next? Finally, the trend shows a leveling out, that even if trading normalizes, ignores the overall upward trend.
"96 hours to stop the SPIKE". LOL.
Nickel is NOT Scarce
What is odd about nickel prices going up so drastically is that nickel is a very common metal. It's sold by the ton.
Should We All Start Hoarding Nickels?
The short answer is probably no, maybe yes. A US nickel only contains 25% nickel, but with nickel currently 3.6X the price of copper, that 1/4th is worth... $0.047 just for the nickel content. Add in the copper and it's almost $0.09
Not a bad deal, a nickel is almost worth a dime in terms of metal content!
A True CANADIAN Nickel
99% PURE NICKEL
The term "nickel" for a 5 cent piece originates from Canada, when in 1922 the silver 5 cent piece was replaced with a pure nickel coin. If you have a Canadian nickel minted between 1922 - 1942, it's nearly 100% nickel content.
Fun Nerdy Math
If we assume a metric ton is currently priced at $100K (probably more), that would make nickel $0.10 USD / gram.
4.54 grams x $0.10 USD = $0.45 nickel per nickel
A 99% pure nickel nickel is almost worth a half-dollar in terms of metal content. CRAZY!
Interestingly, 1 metric ton (one million grams) of pure nickels (1M grams / 4.54 grams per nickel = 220,264) is a face value of (220,264 x $0.05 CAD = $11,013 CAD). Converted to USD = $8590.00 USD.
$8600 USD, right about where a metric ton of nickel should been priced at!
Benjamin Turner: God fearer. Rooted in Messiah. Husband of @lturner. Father of SIX (!!!) wonderful children. The guy behind the camera. Blockchain enthusiast.
Bless the Most High!
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