Bitcoin dropped to $30k, and recovered nicely, now what?

Last week bitcoin hit $42k and then shortly after dropped all the way down to $30k.

The drop was fast and if you blinked, you likely missed the bulk of it.

Just as quickly as it dropped though, it rebounded and pushed all the way back up near $40k.

Since that time, we have been consolidating between $30k-$40k, with that range getting tighter and tighter.

(Source: https://bloqport.substack.com/p/bitcoin-50k?r=3ixac&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter)

What comes next?

Well, if history is of any indication, a gain of at least 100% from those lows is probably what comes next.

From the highs to the lows, bitcoin fell by about 28%, which is more or less in the realm of what we saw around this time back in 2017.

Back in 2017, we saw 6 corrections of 29% or more, which is more or less what we just saw:

(Source: https://bloqport.substack.com/p/bitcoin-50k?r=3ixac&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter)

For some real apples to apples comparison, our halving this time around took place a couple months earlier than the one back in 2016, which means we are in roughly March of 2017 by comparison.

We can see that there was a large correction around this same time of about 38%.

Going off of that, one might think we have another leg down to get a little more than the 28% we saw already, but given that the majority of these dips only lasted 2-3 weeks, with every day that goes by without a dip, the next move is probably higher.

Plus when you factor in the types of hodlers this time around, IE large institutions with long time horizons, the corrections will likely be less severe than they were last time around.

Which means...

In my opinion, and based on past patterns, the next move is probably up.

Going off of the chart above, we can see that after every one of these large corrections, the price goes up by more than 100% every single time.

If that is indeed the case, then we should expect to see a rally to at least $60k over the coming weeks and months before another large correction.

The neat thing is that the gains tend get larger and larger after each correction as we move forward.

Never before was the age-old advice to BTD ever more spot on then with bitcoin during a bull market!

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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