Two things on my mind today - Bitcoin and Oil

Bitcoin

While we have seen the emergence of a small uptrend in BTC, I am still cautious. I am still waiting to see a break above the $41.5k to $42.5k range. After such sharp corrections, even small 3% candles make me happy. However, not worth taking the risk here for a short-term trading position.

The weekly chart looks the same. Last week looked disastrous and while this week has started on a positive note, I hope for a green weekly candle that covers at least 60% of the large red candle from two weeks ago. That again comes close to the white line of $42.5k. That is the level I want bitcoin to break.

Brent Crude

Brent crude broke the $70 a barrel mark yesterday. OPEC plus decided to ease the supply cut gradually, due to increased demand. Expectations were that the group will hold the oil supply steady. The group also indicated that they will look to move gradually after looking at the market. This is basically saying that they will change supply depending on how the US deal with Iran works out and the impact of that on oil markets. A positive deal with Iran will add to the global oil supply, and OPEC+ will be monitoring the situation.
17th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting concludes

Why do I care about this? Because I am paying twice for petrol in Mumbai compared to New Yorkers link. India has witnessed a rapid rise in petrol prices and further increases will cripple Indian households. Inflation outlook does not look good, and it will hit consumer spending hard. Job losses are mounting, household incomes are down and there seems to be no hope of things changing for the good. The main reason for an increase in fuel prices is tax increases by the governments, both state and centre, in the past. Unlikely they will bring taxes down, and unlikely that crude will drop in the near term. It is due to this kind of stupidity from governments why bitcoin looks appealing at any level.

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