Sentiment Speaks: What May Be My Biggest Miss In A Decade by Avi Gilburt

Summary

We have been providing analysis to followers for almost a decade utilizing Fibonacci mathematics to identify high probability structures and turning points in the markets.
Over the years, our methodology has provided some astounding results.
The first quarter of 2020 will likely tell us if the market has chosen a less probable path to our long term target of 4000 on the SPX.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard. Get started today »

I have been providing analysis to people following my work for a bit over a decade now, and have been doing so publicly through our Elliottwavetrader site for over eight years. And during that time, I have also been publishing articles outlining my analysis on Seeking Alpha, where I now have over 46,000 followers, and have averaged more followers per article than almost all other Seeking Alpha authors.

Those that have followed my work during that time know that I am a technical analyst, and I focus primarily upon Elliott Wave analysis, which is a very esoteric form of technical analysis. For those that want to understand my analysis methodology in greater detail, I have written the following six-part series outlining my method on Seeking Alpha:

This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 1 This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 2 This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 3 This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 4 This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 5 This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 6 When you consider that I am a technical analyst, and have been the number one metals analyst and either the number one or number two equity markets analyst for the great majority of the time I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, it would likely strike you as being unusual. I mean, for a technical analyst to rise to prominence on a fundamental website is highly unusual.

Yet, my perspective has always been that I am providing you my accuracy in analysis rather than an explanation of the fundamentals of the market. And, over the years, many of you have come to recognize the high level of accuracy we strive to provide in our analysis, to the extent that we have become the 2nd largest service within Seeking Alpha’s Marketplace, and that we have grown to over 5000 subscribers and over 500 money manager clients within all our services.

For those that have been following my work during the time I have been publishing it, I am quite certain you would be familiar with our successes through the years. So, allow me to highlight some of the major market calls you have seen from our work over the years. It will then lead me to a potential failure which may have been seen in 2019 as we close out this past decade.

Back in July of 2011, when the Fed was throwing QE at the market and everyone was calling for a dollar crash because of it, I was calling for a multi-year rally in the US Dollar (DXY) from the 74 region to an ideal target of 103.53. When you consider that the market was looking for a dollar crash at the time and I was calling for the exact opposite expectation when calling for a 40% rally in the DXY (especially because you “cannot fight the Fed”), I am sure you can understand how many were laughing at my perspective at the time. As we now know, the DXY hit a high of 103.82 five and a half years later, and it has been the high in the DXY for the last two years. It seems my DXY call of five and a half years earlier was off by 29 cents.

Back in August of 2011, during the parabolic rally in gold wherein we were seeing days of $50 or more increases in the price of gold, I called for a top to the rally in the $1,915 region. For those that remember that time period, everyone in the market was quite certain gold was on its way to strongly eclipse the $2,000 mark. And, as we know, gold topped within $6 of my target, taking almost everyone else by surprise.

Throughout the years, there have been many more smaller degree market calls we have made that have exhibited the power of our Fibonacci Pinball method of Elliott Wave analysis. Yet, throughout that time, I was constantly chided that while I was able to get “lucky enough” to call the top to the metals in 2011, I would not be as lucky in being able to call the bottom as well.

Well, back in late 2015, I began telling our subscribers that I was starting to buy back into the metals complex in a big way. Moreover, in September of 2015, we were so confident in our expectation that the metals complex was bottoming out, we rolled out a Metals Miners service on Elliottwavetrader in preparation for the bottoming we expected in the complex. And, in early December of 2015, I penned the following summation to those willing to listen:

As we move into 2016, I believe there is a greater than 80% probability that we finally see a long term bottom formed in the metals and miners and the long term bull market resumes. Those that followed our advice in 2011, and moved out of this market for the correction we expected, are now moving back into this market as we approach the long term bottom. In 2011, before gold even topped, we set our ideal target for this correction in the $700-$1,000 region in gold. We are now reaching our ideal target region, and the pattern we have developed over the last 4 years is just about complete. . . For those interested in my advice, I would highly suggest you start moving back into this market with your long term money . . .

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