The Degen Daytrading Diaries: Bitcoin Phase D Wyckoff Distribution Continues after $9,180 Rejection
Happy Monday. Unreal what is happening with Wirecard and Crypto.com over the past two weeks or so. At one point I’d considered grabbing some MCO tokens and registering for their debit card, and in retrospect I’m happy I never made that move. Be careful out there in cryptoland.
Today, the TA analysis will once again be confined to both the Intraday Charts (4H and 15M). With that, let’s get to the TA…
The 15M Intraday Chart
Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation recently signaled a Change of Character (CHoCH) as it broke trendline resistance (flipping bias from bearish to bullish), entered a re-accumulation pattern, formed a Creek, and was rejected at the $9,180.00 price handle on the subsequent Upward Thrust (UT) from the Jump Across the Creek.
The clear break of the $9,800.00 lower support line both: signaled a Change of Character (CHoCH) as the formation started to form a Creek and printed a Sign of Weakness (SOW) as PA made a clear break through support. Initially it appeared to suggest PA had entered Phase E of a Wyckoff Distribution, but the Upward Thrust (UT) associated with the Jump Across the Creek suggests Phase D is still underway.
Two key takeaways with the PA on the 15M Intraday: (i) the Upward Thrust (UT) from the Jump Across the Creek, failed to break past key local resistance at the $9,180.00 price handle. The rejection suggests strong bearish bias remains, and (ii) after rejection from the $9,180.00 price handle, the PA has subsequently printed another Bearish Line of Support, a Descending Triple Bottom and another Sign of Weakness (SOW). Volume also appears to indicate buyers are exhausted in this price range, and the Volume Oscillator is printing a strong negative value (-21.53%), indicating a strong trend shift is looming.
I would expect another test and subsequent decisive break of the lower end of support at $8,900.00, with a transition into Phase E for a Selling Climax (SC).
The 4H Intraday Chart
Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the upper end of PA has shifted down from the $9,240.00 price handle to the $9,180 price handle, and PA has been confined beneath the $9,180.00 local resistance since the re-accumulation and subsequent failed breakout attempt.
The PA mirrors the activity on the 15M Intraday (Bearish Support Line, Descending Triple Bottom, Sign of Weakness), and has a strong bearish bias. One item of note is the Volume Oscillator is printing a much stronger negative value (-48.28%) relative to the 15M Intraday (-21.53%). Values above 30.00% on either side indicate a significant trend shift is looming soon.
Summary/My Trade Plan
Short positions should have been taken within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 zone, the $9,400.00 - $9,300.00 zone, and the $9,300.00 - $9,200.00 zone. The recent move into re-accumulation and subsequent failure to break above $9,180.00 on a Jump Across the Creek is decidedly bearish. Given the significance of the $8,900 support line, and recent re-accumulation activity, adding more to short positions at this time still seems unwise – risk/reward appears to favor riding with the current positions held rather than adding more.
The Target Price for the Selling Climax (SC) would be $7,800.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation during this Wyckoff Phase D). Covering short positions should begin at or near the $8,300.00 price handle, layer covers through $7,800.00, and reserve approximately 15% for a potential blow off bottom/bottom sell.
Stops currently at the $9,470.00 and $9,365.00 price handle should be shifted downward. The split should be a 50% of the total position at $9,355.00 and 50% of the total position at $9,255.00 to safeguard against an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which could fall back into the trade range. While uncharacteristic for Phase D, the appearance of an accumulation pattern, failed breakout above $9,180.00 on the 15M Intraday, and the significance of support at the $8,900.00 price handle suggest prudence is wise here and some profit should be baked into the short position.
At the Selling Climax (SC), a scalp long should present itself off the Automatic Reaction (AR) from the Selling Climax (SC) once the Low Pole Reversal Confirms – potentially somewhere in the $7,800 - $7,700 region. This would also be an excellent place for long term cold storage buys. Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, sell off any scalp long buys immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
You can follow me and keep up to date on Tradingview as well. I trade under the handle FOFAgent1 at tradingview.com
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