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History: October 23, 2021. Economic Consequences of the Plague of Justinian 541-549 CE

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The Justinian Plague is the term with which we describe the pandemic which depopulated most of the known world from 541 till 549 CE. It was caused by Yersinia Pestis, migrating from Asia, in a way similar to the Black Death of the 14th century CE . An estimate of its mortality was the 40% death rate reported for Constantinople.

There are similarities compared to the Black Death with respect to the economic consequences. Labor shortages caused by depopulation caused an increase in real wages for workers. Economic output declined, but not as severely as population decline so the per capita production actually increased. Inflation occurred due increase in production costs and scarcity. Land rents as well as interest rates and prices decreased both in absolute terms and relative to wages. Landowners lost income and power.

Overall the most important geopolitical consequence was the loss of influence and the start of the decline of the Eastern Roman Empire. At the time of the plague, Justinian was completing the reconquest of the land once belonging to the Western Roman Empire. Although it managed to complete the conquest, it did it in a debilitated way, which allowed the
Germanic tribes to retake those lands by 568 CE.

Please read my other posts regarding the economic consequences of pandemics.

This post is intended to only raise awareness. In order to make actual financial decisions please contact your financial advisor and/or tax advisor prior to making the decision.