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I Have No Ill Will Towards Steem Or Even Justin Sun

avatar of @markkujantunen
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@markkujantunen
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Yes, Justin Sun is a vulture capitalist and his motivations were counter to all that we and all other advocates of decentralization believe in.

But lets look at what followed from his actions starting from February 14.

The the majority of the community was galvanized into action. Contrary to what some people believed in, the middle class of Steem that had emerged during the long bear market when stake distribution went into high gear was able to rally around the cause of preventing Sun from completely dominating the witness spots. The battle resulted in an impasse, which by itself was a victory, that resulted in the creation of a new chain: Hive.

The price of Hive at the moment:

And the price of Steem:

Some people have said they've already powered down the first installment of their SP or have held a significant portion of their tokens as liquid STEEM and have sold out. Is STEEM tanking? It seems to be holding up.

I actually wish Steem success. I think it's realistic to expect STEEM not to go to zero despite most of the community leaving for Hive. The price of STEEM may not even go down that much. Why on Earth not? Because the wider cryptocurrency market treats all altcoins as quasi derivatives of Bitcoin. Most altcoin investors do not seem to care about the fundamentals at all. Why else do you think STEEM did so badly in bear market despite having the most actual users? That's because cryptocurrency investors are mostly young and impatient people looking to get rich quick. Even one of the largest investors in the Steem/Hive ecosystem, @theycallmedan is a former professional poker player. Sure, he's a value investor and because of his former career he's an expert risk manager, but most investors in the crypto space are not.

I suspect the market will soak up a larger proportion of STEEM sold in the near future than most people think. Why? Because of all the massive press coverage Steem and Hive had during and after the battle royale with Justin Sun and his gang of puppets. The battle was even covered by Bloomberg! That's mainstream attention right there.

Justin Sun may turn out to be the best (unwitting?) Devil's advocate that we could've hoped for. Maybe he doesn't want Steem to crash to the floor as Steemians sell their stake. It would be humiliating. So, maybe Justin will be buying the tokens for some time. Steem has a market cap of $65 million whereas Tron is worth $750 million. The Tron foundation barely has the expertise to keep the chain running. They will not be able to migrate it to Tron any time soon. Steem is complex and implementing it as smart contracts on Tron would be a lot of work.

The status quo is that every Steemian who was included in the HIVE token airdrop has effectively doubled their holdings. It remains to be seen how much of that they can realize. But as HIVE is being listed by an increasing number exchanges, its value will rise. The corona-induced recession will be over in a couple of years at most. The rising of the value of Bitcoin will most likely be put off by the recession for a bit but after the recession is over, all the QE measures will flood the market with money and some of that will end up buying cryptocurrencies.