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Central Tendency of Hive, it just needs a sideway movement of BTC to produce a spike in HIVE.

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The dynamics of price action have been shifting from cycle to cycle and perhaps it's also going to shift from one decade to the other. In the first bull cycle, the sentiment was purely on BTC, on the premise of an immutable ledger, trustless transfer, etc.

The second bull cycle was defined by the adoption and recognition of a free-market economy, liberal economy, smart economy, etc, the sentiment was still strongly rooted in Bitcoin, but it also gave birth to a few major altcoins, the major ones with the concept of smart contract, e.g. ETH.

The third bull cycle was a classic example of a Laissez-faire economy-- the DeFi revolution. The other major rally was around NFTs. With each successive cycle the range has got redefined, the crypto assets have gone for price discovery. But at the same time, the depreciation from ATH in each successive bear cycle has been huge, 80-90%.

This bull cycle/bear cycle has been quite different so far. We did not witness a blow off top and that is why the bear cycle was not that intense, at least until now. We can not simply check the health of the crypto economy based on BTC till eternity. This cycle has a lot more to say beyond BTC euphoria. Many other altcoins that have a strong second layer Economy and utilitarian value have performed well-- Hive could be one such example, it just needed a side-way movement of BTC to spike and trade higher.

What next for the next Bull cycle?? May be strong communities. The projects who are defined by a strong community may become a fresh catalyst for the next major bull run, just like DeFi was that impetus for the bul cycle which started in 2020.

No matter how strong the second or third layer economy is, they are all synthetic. An economy is always sustained by the proletariat class, a community is defined by masses. If you take out those masses from an ecosystem, then whatever remains, viz., the stake, the assets, the influence power, etc. will become sterile. It is the proletariat class or the active community strength(size) that is constantly engaging within the community are creating value.

We have already seen the euphoria of crypto as the most valuable asset when it is/was invoked as DeFi. What if the same crypto is invoked as social media, think about the potential of Hive in that case. The traditional social media are still the king, but Hive as a decentralized social platform is still a viable option, and it becomes strongest when you invoke a social media as a web 3.0 platform.

There have been a lot of noise around crypto in the context of regulation, ban, and/or central banker contemplating on rolling out CBDC, etc., but if at all any such development materializes it can not override crypto. Fundamentally crypto and regulation are paradoxical.

Crypto since the beginning has defended the Laissez-faire economy. In fact, it was born out to defend the laissez-faire economy in the first place. It denounces any kind of intervention, restriction, regulation, etc.

Take the example of DEX, DeFi, etc., they are all defined by the spontaneous order. It does not need any state regulation. That spontaneous order also defines the human relations and the demand/supply curve. The myriad of transactions that are being carried out through the spontaneous order is constantly fulfilling human needs. When there is no intervention, the transaction also becomes cost-effective. That is why crypto is so far the most cost-effective to transfer than an international wire transfer.

Coming back to Hive-- let's take a look at "How HIVE has performed over the last three months". Many assets have corrected heavily since their ATH, to the extent of 80-90%. While that is true, that is equally an opportunity to onboard new players. If we look at HIVE, a series of spontaneous spikes have been the story of HIVE in this bull/bear cycle. In an open free market, we should only accept what it is and how it plays out. There is nothing wrong with that. But for the long-term investors and those who believe in web 3.0, for them, the VALUE of HIVE is constantly growing.

Here is the data set of HIVE's closing price for the last three months(from 29th Mar to 29th June 2022) to calculate the central tendency of HBD-- Mean, Median Mode.

Bitcoin refreshed its low this month and since then it is hovering around 21k zone. But a sideline movement of BTC has produced a few spikes in HIVE many a time. For all Hivers, it's really a soothing experience considering the painful bearish endeavor of June.

Over the last three months, the HIVE histogram has produced two peaks; HIVE managed to sustain the 0.45-0.55 range for 24 days and the 0.85-0.95 range for 18 days during these three months.

Although the range of HIVE is wide open in the last three months, i.e. max-min- $1.25 to $0.35. The mean and the median value of $0.689 and $0.571 respectively are quite reasonable and satisfactory, considering the bearish run of late. The recent rally from 0.35 to 0.65 today(at the time of writing this article) restores confidence for HIVE bulls.

With the last three month's dataset of HIVE, "mode" stands at 0.907, a value with maximum occurrence. It would not be wise to predict the market, but is always prudent to analyze the data, and rightly so, HIVE's performance over the last three months has a lot to say and question the bear run. The timing, entry, length of bear cycle, etc are debtale. But both in the bull and bear cycle HIVE has offered a lot more room for the day traders.

Let's have another look at the price history and its reference to 7 days, 14 days, one month, 200 days, and one year change.

If we compare today's price, i.e. $0.57, then almost all boxes are ticked green, except reference of 200 day's price. If we assume the 90% correction since ATH will be the base it will be around $0.35. If this bear cycle does not give up the $0.30-$0.35 zone, then the $0.35 zone would become the point of control and multi-year base.

Conclusion:-

Although the crypto market is still strongly coupled with the sentiment around BTC, there are growing signs of de-coupling at the micro-level. The DeFi, second layer economy, etc are producing strong utilitarian value. Take the example of HBD, if in a saving account of HBD( 3 days locking), I can earn as much as 20% APR, why should I go for a fixed deposit or a saving deposit in a Bank, where the APR is hardly 10% or so(from investment point of view, or managing the spare money).

The decoupling from BTC will also be quite healthy because a part of BTC market cap will start flowing into other strong fundamental assets, which will somehow curb the speculative instinct, and the investors will start focusing on investing in good projects. I am not downplaying BTC, neither undermining it, but at some point, BTC price will saturate and that will be the beginning of a new era in crypto which will no more allure traders based on speculation, the traders, and investors will start paying attention to fundamental value, utilitarian value, etc.

Disclaimer:- This article is intended for educational and analytical purposes only. It should not be construed as financial advice. Thank you.

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