RE: Hive Dump Got Ya Down?
Well if it's steadily moving in an upwards direction that's one thing. However, i've decided not to analyze hive like systems anymore and i generally will never invest alot in them. The reason being i can give you an example. I first arrived at steem like over 4 years ago now. Long long time for crypto. If you think in terms of bitcoin almost half the life of bitcoin's entire existence.
The problem is it was about 200k users when i arrived and steem and sbd were in the $2 range. bitcoin was about $2000 then jumped to $4000. Bitcoins' deflation model now has it in the 50k range. Hive which to me is still steem as it has the same exact people struggles to maintain $1.
In other words i can't use metcalfe's law to analyze the hive network. it doesn't work. the network now has about pushing 10x it's growth and its still down over 50%. That's a bad sign for me. For me it would means the network as a whole doesn't work. it may work for some of you. However as a whole i can't substantiate that it works well.
My token using deflation was at 0.00025 it's now around 0.00084. it seems to always stay above these ranges and i believe that's based on network growth, metcalfe's law and conceptually i dont really care about trade volume as long as the concept works i know it will work on any scale. So that's not the issue.
Hive doesn't mirror this. it defies metcalfe's law. it shouldn't do that. However it has alot of moving parts and this weird inflation system they created. Which now i believe needs more thought. I think dan larimer and ned scott may have realized many inherent issues with it. it does not work in the crypto sense of what i think people want. So it's going to remain quite niche i believe until that's worked on. Just my thoughts. They could be wrong but after pushing 5 years of research i don't believe i'm wrong. I also just think eventually some project will come along that understands this and benefit from it. I hope hive doesn't get left behind if this happens.
At the same time don't get me wrong if you find benefit in the system and use. By all means use it. It doesn't benefit me significantly i just use many of the blockchain social media sites to promote crypto things. I don't really look at them as investment models. I don't think they do that well. I think ideas like sound money and integrating crypto as a currency into other successful projects as an optional payment ay be idea. However closed looped systems like this beyond just media and promotion don't really appeal to me.
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