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What will happen to voucher prices?

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@notak
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Before the vouchers came out, my guess was the voucher price would be about $5. Clearly I have been wrong, its hovered between $15-$20 for almost the whole time.

The graph against hive can show the stability, and the volatility in price is more hive volatility than voucher price volatility

What may happen in the next few days

There are obviously three main outcomes

  1. The price holds until the pre-sale is finished
  2. the price plummets as whales dump their holdings
  3. the price increases as people are trying to fill their taget (e.g. 50 or 1000 packs)

Lets look at each of these scenarios, and what may drive it

If the price holds

There is no doubt, after the pre-sale finishes, value (not the price) will definitely drop. The reason is that you will no longer be eligible for the promo card, and legionnaire title. So what is one reason that we would expect the price to hold? perhaps whales have an incentive to hold the price, right until the end.

lets be honest, whales have a fair amount of influence on price, and they might have sunk quite a bit of cash into buying chaos legion packs, and hence effectively have bought a gold foil Dr. Blight. So the last thing they want is a market crash in voucher prices right near the end, as this will send a market signal on the price of Dr. Blight, and potentially devalue their airdrop cards, so there may be a reluctance to dump on the voucher market before presale closes out.

lets also not forget supply an demand, through some miraculous miracle of equilibrium perhaps demand and supply at the current price will be maintained.

If the price drops

at the time of writing there are still 380k vouchers that haven't been used. with only 4 days left in the presale. That's a lot of vouchers

So armed with the logic that voucher prices will probably drop after the pre-sale, there may be some that would like to capitalize on the price whilst its still high and sell their vouchers.. preempting the lower value after the presale.

there are still lots of whales holding vouchers, here is the top 18 from splintercards (https://www.splintercards.com/tool-richlist.html?t=VOUCHER)

Either they are holding out to buy the packs or waiting for a potential rush near the end to sell.

Who knows, but there is an awful lot of supply that can dump on the market.

If the price rises

This is the FOMO scenario, where so many people are trying to finish off their collection, they might be aiming for 1000 for the gold foil Dr Blight, or maybe 50 for the dr blight card, but they will be desperate to finish that collection and get in to some of that action.

there are also the whale competitions at the top, where the top 6 will get to design their own card, and receive a max level gold foil version of it too. that could drive a bit of demand right in the dying minutes.. and people could be keeping their cards close to their chest here.

I think the price jump at the end scenario is unlikely because there is so much supply left, but who knows. but many players could be holding out for the big dump.. and when that doesnt happen be forced to buy o the rise.

What may happen after the presale

So after the presale, the value will still be there, because you can't get the airdrop cards in the first two tranches without buying with a voucher. Supply will double though. Also the airdrop cards will be available through pack openings later, so its not quite as valuable as the promo card. perhaps it will be worth around $4-$5, given chaos legion packs are trading for about $8 (the ones without the airdrop points) I would expect the voucher and chaos legion pack to be slightly higher.

and then after the first two tranches of $1m cards each, vouchers will still be needed to get the bonus packs for bulk purchases. so this really puts a ceiling on the price post presale, I wouldn't expect the price to be more than $4. actually should be substantially less than that, because not everyone will be buying bulk so there will probably be more vouchers than demand.

depends on the chaos legion pack on the open market, there could be arbitrage opportunities with vouchers and bonus packs, which may keep the price stead, I am guessing about $1-$2 per voucher, after the second tranches.

Conclusion

It's anybody's guess where the voucher price will go.. good luck with your decision, do your won research and enjoy playing the game!