Completely Refusing To Invest In Cryptocurrencies Is Stupid

Let's assume interest rates go up significantly

The following will happen:

• The bond market will tank. Sovereign bonds are widely used as collateral. A collapse in the value of sovereign bonds would destroy a lot of other markets as well.

• Governments cannot refinance their debt. As a result, welfare programs and social security schemes will collapse. Extreme, desperate poverty of the kind we haven't seen in nearly a hundred years will be rampant. There will be potential for political turmoil, which will put everyone in physical danger.

• Real estate markets will collapse. Hundreds of millions of homeowners in the developed world will have insufficient collateral for their mortgages. There will be a record number of foreclosures.

• Hundreds of millions of jobs will be lost overnight when corporations that are barely able to manage their debts go bankrupt.

• As a result of collapsing collateral values, the banking system will go belly up overnight. The entire economy will grind to a halt.

Interest rates will never be allowed to go up significantly

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The entire crypto sector may be a giant bubble but it's stupid not to invest in the current macro environment.

If forced to, central banks will simply set up a ceiling for bond yields and buy up all bonds that the market demands such interest on that it exceeds the set limit. Central banks have limitless ability to print money to buy bonds with. This is called yield curve control. That's exactly what the Bank of Japan has been doing since 2016.

Will yield curve control result in hyperinflation?

Unlikely in the short to medium term. The world economy is under very strong deflationary pressure. Information technology is a growing input in everything produced and the cost of information technology is falling expontentially. Industrial production is being outsourced to countries with low cost of labor. Wages have been growing very modestly in the last few decades. Housing markets in the developed world are not looking good and downward pressure in prices thanks to low and lowering birth rates having been a secular trend for decades. The number of people looking to buy big ticket items such as houses is going down. As for cars and other big ticket consumer items, the falling price of information technology is keeping price increases in check. The deterioration of the middle class and the concentration of wealth are causing an increasing share of income to come from and go back to investments as opposed to consumption.

Conclusion

The excess liquidity printed by central banks will increasingly go to the financial markets. Because interest rates are being mercilessly cut down by central banks, fixed income investments will yield nothing and investors will thus seek out risk-on investments such as tech stocks (which makes a lot of sense from a fundamental perspective as well) as well as emerging highly risk-on asset such as cryptocurrencies and crypto-assets.

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