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SPS - Stake half, sell half and hopefully buy-back laters!

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@revise.leo
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Getting free tokens is NOICE, to say the least, but what to do with these SPS tokens is a dilemma for all involved in this most wonderous airdrop....!

It's anyone's guess which direction the SPS price is going to go in the first year....

On the one hand there are A LOT of tokens being released - the schedule for the first 12 months is more intense, then it levels off, and we've seen an intense increase in Splinterlands asset prices in the last month especially, and SPS is the 'easy yield' token, all of which suggests there might be something of a sell-off in the first year.

I'm personally looking at my drop of 550 SPS a day and thinking that at $0.40 a token, I'd be insane not to cash out some of that for dollar dollar as we go.

IF the token price remained at $0.40 and I cashed out the lot, I'd be looking at around $250 a day, over 200 days I'd be looking at $50 000.

And if I cashed out all of it, I'd still have all my other splinterlands assets.

That $50K happens to be about the amount I've got left on my mortgage, so it's a very meaningful IRL figure, then again I've got that on very low interest and the repayments aren't crippling, so it's not urgent that I pay it off, especially when...

SPS might become the central value-token of Splinterlands

SPS might end up being valued at above a dollar, several dollars even, which is quite feasible given that it could develop multiple in game use cases and SUCK the value of all other assets towards it - the more SPS you own the more value you can earn on the cards you play (I think that's the general idea behind staking).

My head and my gut are both telling me BOTH are going to happen - people are going to sell in the short term but the MAJORITY are going to be putting in lower buy orders to buy back in at $0.20 to $0.30 - $0.25 sounds like a BARGAIN.

My gut also tells me that a few people might snipe a couple of large sells at those prices, but they'd be lucky!

A Modified 50-50 stake-sell for 200 days suits me.

I worked out what this would look like for my own drop, based on 500 SPS (I get a bit more, but the extra 50 can be 'just for fun', maybe I could sell those for cards?), and here it is... assuming the SPS price remains stable at $0.40 (which it won't but stick with me!)....

This is staking 250 a day and selling 250 a day @0.40

The final column is how much daily interest I'd earn if I staked my sells (not as stables) in some kind of pool which yielded a 50% APY, like I imagine the BNB-SPS pool is going to settle at.

After 200 days, I'd be able to buy back another 6000 SPS just with my interest earnings.

IF after 200 days I had 50K SPT staked and $20K in the bank, I'd be pretty happy with that, even if it meant some opportunity cost of possible higher future returns on staking ALL the SPS.

But I'm getting a bit sick of 'cash out is just around the corner' so cashing out some as I go appeals....

NB - I've only project up to 200 days as I think that's the point where people are going to be tightening their belts and hodling - as the airdrop is most of the way through and probably LAND will be rearing it's head by then too.

Of course I probably won't stake everything immediately - one has to keep some liquid to play those price spikes!

Modifying the above - sell $100 a day's worth of SPS up to a max of 350 a day

THIS is my actual working plan - so it's modified the above slightly.

This means I stake a minimum of 150 - 200 (the extra 50!) SPS a day or more if the SPS price is high.

My rationale here is that I want at least 100K of my drop staked - and if I do this for 200 days, even if I only stake 200 a day I can still make 100K if after 200 days I then stake ALL the rest of my drop.

Selling half the SPS for Cake for now

I'm selling half my SPS daily for cake and staking that on Pancake into the Cake for SPS pool - that's only around for another 56 days or so, after that I might just do SPS for stables or look around for whatever other pooling options that are working with SPS by that point.

Buying Back 50K SPS

I'll look for an opportunity to buy back that 50K SPS, how much of it I buy back, or whether I buy back more will depend on the utility I see it bringing to the game and, of course, the price.

I'm already setting some limit orders o Hive-Engine, so that money is 'locked' for buy-back' - whether I get my price or have to pay a premium, that's any one's guess!

Final thoughts - a game within a game

At the end of the day I can't predict the price, but I think this strategy covers me both ways - whether the price rises or falls, this is going to be a NOICE little earner for the rest of 2021 and into 2022.

Whether I maximise the 'value-reallocation' across Splinterlands that's going to come with SPS remains to be seen!

Best of luck to all players, battle has commenced!

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