Hive equality trends May-June 2020: Minnow-toast by 2023 at current attrition rate
The distribution of Hive Power has become very slightly more equal over the last month, according to a comparison of @argange's most excellent statistics, which show us distribution levels my MVEST and by number of accounts, and by all accounts and active accounts.
Below I look at trends in distribution from May 31st 2020 to June 30th 2020, based on all MVESTs and all users.
Probably the most alarming thing, based on the current attrition rate rather than usual Hive-bubble think, is that the number of Minnows are dropping off, and not because they are leveling up. At this rate, Hive is toast by 2023, based on the active user number and vesting stats.
This analysis doesn't take account of the 80 Million liquid HIVE currently not staked in the DAO.
Not to say that people won't start to adopt Hive in the future, but based on the current stats, there is no sign of optimism, unless all of those new accounts are Minnows in waiting - although if they are none (and I mean literally zero) of them have actually bought the tiny, tiny, teeny-tiny $100 or so worth of Hive needed to become a Minnow, which hardly screams 'Moon'.
Trends in distribution by MVEST levels
31st May 2020
30th June 2020
|Level|% of total MVESTS 31st May| % of total MVESTS 30th June| |-|-|-| |Whales|36.31%|36.24| |Orcas|29.46%|29.21| |Dolphins|19.07%|19.2| |Minnows|9.97%|10.01| |Redfish|5.19%|5.33|
There's been a very minor shift in distribution away from Whales and Orcas of around 0.3% towards Dolphins, Minnows and Redfish.
Redfish Mvest level has grown the most with an increase in share of 0.14%.
This is a very minor shift towards greater equality.
Trends in distribution by number of accounts
31st May 2020
30th June 2020
| Level | No. of accounts 1st May | No. of accounts 31st May |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 33 | 31 |
| Orcas | 311 | 302 |
| Dolphins | 1904 | 1859 |
| Minnows | 9072 | 8954 |
| Redfish | 1375884 | 13844693 |
Two less whale accounts, eight fewer Orcas, 150 fewer Dolphins and 100 fewer minnows accounts.
In short, we have fewer larger accounts - I guess the Whale reduction is probably the last of the exchanges powering down, Orcas just the last of those narced Steemians Powering Down, and the Dolphin Disappearance the same.
Commentary/ Analysis
Overall, once we factor in the exhaust fumes of the transition to Steem there's very little difference - pretty stable stats over all I'd say.
My feeling is that the declining numbers of Higher level accounts is just the last few people disappearing following the Fork from Steem rather it being a decline of a gradual descent into oblivion.
100 000 new Redfish accounts created in the last month, seems like a good sign, but time will only tell how many of these go on to Power Up to Minnow and beyond, until they do the sheer number of accounts at Redfish level is pretty meaningless, as many of them have 0 HP and very little influence on the platform.
NB I actually wrote this yesterday, based on yesterday's stats, and then cut in today's updated stats today. In 24 hours we'd lost 10 more minnows, only one of them progressing up to Dolphin.
At this rate of attrition, Hive is minnow-toast by 2023.
Sources:
Posted Using LeoFinance
