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The BTC halving is around the corner and how I feel about it.

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@rmach
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The historic moment is arriving. BTC halving means a lot to some people. It means nothing to others. But it's an historic event! Everybody knows it's coming. It's not a surprise. It's at least symbolic.

BIT is an experience that nobody knows how it will end. Will it end? Will it last forever? Freedom. Borderless hard money with limited supply. No centralized planning. Exciting times.


To be honest I was pretty excited during the last halving but I'm not anymore. I guess it was beginner's excitement. Regarding forecasts, I've seen it all. It's supposed to be down: it's down ("as expected") or goes up ("something happened!). When all the oracles with their crystal balls say it's about to go up: It goes up... ("I knew that.") or it goes down ("I blame the whales that are dumping.")

This is the everyday life of those who follow BTC price closely and regularly.

However, the halvening may be different. Still nobody knows what will happen but there's a date (sort of)! If there's supposed to happen something pricewise it will be around that moment!

Of course the halving is relevant for the great picture. It was designed from the start and it only happens every 4 years. It has consequences. Miners' rewards, reducing supply while the demand is increasing are not minor issues. It's super important. Again... exciting times!

The same thing happens every halving but every halving is somehow different. The context is different, the world is different and thus the consequences are likely to be different. One single halving early on may be quite irrelevant but a halving on top of a halving on top of a halving carries some historic load. Past halvings influence the present halving; these are not independent events.

Many people are struggling right now, in a mix of FOMO and FUD. "What if it never goes down again? What if it crashes after the halving?"

Don't let that thoughts consume you (too much). If you don't know what to do it's more like a bet. Not betting everything at once may help you sleep at night. Keep some liquidity so that you may correct and adjust your moves later on.

Set your strategy so that you are fine in case it goes down and in case it goes up. You won't be 100% correct but you won't be 100% wrong. You won't be 100% lambo but you won't be 100% homeless and starving.


I feel comfortable buying below 10K anyway, so for me it's a good idea to buy some now. "What if it goes down right before the halving?" So what? Buy some more. "And after the halving are people going to take profits? It might sink again."
Very probable. Then buy some more. "Don't you take profits?" I might. That's why I buy some now instead of waiting for another dip. If the dip doesn't come, I can take profits if the price climbs. "But what if it goes down?" We're walking in circles... if it goes down I can buy some more because I'm still liquid...


Nobody knows what will happen but I know I like this chart: ChartsBTC on twitter

I also know that when the halving comes I'll open a beer and make a toast to Satoshi Nakamoto.


RMach