Saudi looks like it's going to dominate oil production going forward

Here's a chart comparing oil production by the USA, Saudi and Russia:

source

Russian oil production is down: sanctions mean they can't get the parts to maintain existing wells, let alone sink new wells (Russia is heavily dependant on imported machinery and tech).

The USA appears to have crippled itself by not issuing new drilling permits ("no more driling" mania has swept the Democrats.

That leaves Saudi as the only place spending money finding new wells to drill on their territory. They store a lot of the oil they produce instead of selling it all (in order not to tank the price). But because of the long lead times between finding and drilling a well, they make sure they're continuously exploring.

This pragmatism is the reason they're the swing producer and will be for decades. Both the USA or Russia could have been the swing producer, but both have blown it in their different ways.