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When do bear markets bottom out?

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@rose98734
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Some of the financial press have been predicting the bottom for months and each time the reason given is that they think they've detected signs of a Fed pivot. But the pivot never materializes and the trend remains down.

If there a more objective way of calling the bottom?

In the past bottoms have occured when

  • Purchasing Managers Index series is well below 50 (below 50 = contraction, above 50 = expansion)

  • Unemployment rate has already risen by 1.3% (so substantial layoffs are already happening)

  • Future expected Earnings Per Share have been revised down 10%+ (Revenue down, Profits down)

Here is a chart looking at previous S&P bottoms:

source

None of the criteria have been met yet. Monthly PMIs come in above or at 50 (so expansion still happening), and unemployment has barely budged. Only earning per share has dropped, but not by a huge amount.

This indicates the bear market has some way to go, unfortunately.