Max Pain, One Dollah Hive, Conviction, Market Manipulation and Price Predictions
Hive price has been on a wild ride recently but many have sadly already tapped out.
Who can blame them though?
Just look at this chart.
This price action was horrid.
-90% in a bull market?
Whaaaat?
Enter the meatgrinder
For an entire year, Hive painted one of the most boring charts in the entire crypto sphere.
While every other coin was prospering, uplifted by a historic bull run, Hive has been rather uneventful. In fact, after the initial short-lived surge to 1$, Hive kept bleeding out over a period of 280 days, creating one extremely boring chart and retracing a whopping 91%! While this price action to an outsider could have indicated that the project itself is suffering a slow death, this downtrend turned out to be just one prolonged (most likely heavily manipulated) accumulation period.
I sincerely hope the meatgrinder hasn't bored/frustrated/scared you into selling.
Reeking of manipulation
I'm willing to bet my bottom dollar that some very large players had their fingers in this and that they've used this period of suppressed price in order to line their pockets with cheap Hive, before sending it to Andromeda.
High-frequency trading on Korean exchanges and insane volume/price spikes raised some eyebrows. Continually pushing down the price in order to create FUD, postponing the inevitable, explosive price action to create a painstakingly long accumulation period while the entire market is booming, is a common manipulation practice used to make inpatient, risk-averse, investors forfeit their coins to the conspirators at a cheap price.
It works
Immensely savage and brutally effective scheme, often resulting in a considerable amount of token holders exiting their positions at a loss, or at the very least, at an unrealistically low price. The full beauty of this move is not in making plebs sell their coins cheap, but rather in making them suffer by having to watch them Giga-pump afterward.
In trading terms, this is what we like to call "maximum pain outcome".
Market manipulators benefit greatly from max pain because it is so painfully efficient in shaking traders out of their positions in extreme favor of black hat traders.
Hive max pain
What we've been through holding Hive during this bull market was definitely max pain.
Max pain on steroids.
While most other coins were popping left, right and center, even shitcoins and scam coins doing 10X's on a Monday morning, some legit projects like Hive lost more than 90%. To say that this was frustrating would be an extreme understatement. Frustrating, boring, disheartening are just a few emotions this chart could have made you feel.
While you were feeling low and fresh out of luck, someone was accumulating in preparation for the unavoidable moon mission. And just when you've finally had enough and decide to take the loss, the price suddenly starts picking up steam.
Smart money gets rewarded at the expense of dumb money.
Same old story repeating, over and over again.
Light at the end of the tunnel
If you've managed to hodl onto Hive during these rough times, congratufuckinglations!!
By the end of the year, you shall most probably receive your rewarded in the form of 5-10$ Hive. This is my minimum price-range target for 2021. Upper price target being somewhere at 20$.
Selling at 1$ only to have to witness it shoot up to 10$ or 20$ could possibly be another max pain scenario for many Hivers who are fixated on the 1$ target.
The recent price swings got our blood pumping.
If this trend continues, what we're about to witness in the upcoming months, is going to blow your mind. You will be shocked to see what kind of a difference a measly 10x means for Hive and where it will go on from there.
I can already feel the pain of those selling Hive early while Hive just keeps on pumping way past their wildest expectations.
Short term price action
After consolidating in the 27-37c range for a month, Hive is currently going bananas.
It broke through 37c with confidence after more than 10 rejections, finally confirming uptrend continuation by flipping the dreaded resistance level from seemingly insurmountable resistance into strong support for a healthy uptrend.
I've started writing this post yesterday.
As of today, Hive has managed to flip two new resistance levels, turning them into newfound support to soften its fall if it decides to retrace. This is very significant and shows the insane amount of strength Hive is flexing during these unprecedented times. I wouldn't be surprised to see it snap to 1$ in a day as resistances above 50c are rather thin.
Although, if continued in such a bullish manner, Hive should slide like a hot knife through butter from 50c to a dolla, there still is one price point to keep an eye on.
Our last real resistance.
It's to be a tough nut to crack.
Our collective 1$ anchor is going to weigh our ship down a few times before we finally conquer it.
It's a mighty psychological price target and those are historically tough to get through.
Remember how hard it was for Bitcoin to break 10k?
This is how long it took Bitcoin to get over that psychological target.
I'm sure you know what happened afterward.
Strong hands were rewarded on the back of weak hands emotionally selling their satoshis at a loss.
An exact replica of this situation is going to play out for Hive after it goes past 1$.
Long-term price action
Psychological barriers of round numbers are omnipresent in crypto across the board, Hive included. Thus, we will most likely first have to go through a few big fat rejections from that one dollar level before every last person that wanted to sell 1$ hive has sold, so that the rest of us can take it to 10$ and possibly even beyond.
After breaching through the infamous psychological resistance, we will go through a period of extreme volatility and crazy price action.
It's going to be wild!
Take care during these times as the market is going to try extremely hard to shake you out.
Be very cautious not to get washed out on the beach while the rest of us are kicking it at the yacht. You don't want to be going through max pain while everyone else is rewarded for holding through the storm with max pleasure.
Worst case scenario is a 50%-60% retracement. That's nothing for us! I don't know about you but I'd rather hold through something like that than miss out a 100x. My risk tolerance is generally quite high, but it's extreme with projects I have such high conviction for as I do for Hive.
Best case scenario, on the other hand, is up-only to infinity. In preparation, leave your trading device outside the house to prevent something like this from happening.
In all seriousness, Hive has never looked better, not even when it was at 1$.
Both fundementally and technically, Hive is ticking all the right boxes and it's just a matter of time before the market starts appreciating it. All these years of believing that Steem, now Hive, has the capacity to change the world, are finally going to pay off. Diamond handed hodlers with strong conviction about this outcome will benefit tremendously, enjoying abundance, while paper-handed weaklings will cry us a magnificent river in front of our citadel while begging for upvotes.
EOY price predictions
I can see three possible scenarios playing out.
- 5 dolla
- 9 dolla
- 19 dolla
The first target is rather conservative, also less likely, while the other two are based on our collective inability to surpass psychological price barriers. Imho, none of the above predictions are unreasonable. On the contrary. We've witnessed many projects with much less to offer do a lot better than this so why wouldn't Hive be able to do a 100x or 200x?
I could be wrong and I don't mind being wrong about this as I'm not depending on Hive to make it financially, as much as I did before.
I've also doubled my holdings during the period while the rest were fearful so I'd be fine with even a few dolla Hive. Disappointed as it definitely deserves a much higher valuation, but fine. We'll do it in the next bull run anyway. I don't mind holding Hive the least bit and some of it I'll be holding for decades.
Heck, I'll even hold 20% of my current holdings forever.
Like, I'll never sell it.
Not even at a thousand bucks.
