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Stop Giving Bogdanov Your Magic Internet Money!

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@runicar
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2 min read

Funny how sentiment changes on a whim

Just a couple days in the red and what was once a "great buy, it's going to the moon" quickly turns into "oh fuck, back to 9/5 this shit is going to zero".

What's even more fascinating is that this polar opposite emotional bias has been stealing schmekels from plebs since Munehisa Homma traded his first paper grain of rice at the Dojima stock exchange, way back in 1710. He discovered and studied the peculiar connection between market sentiment and emotional biases.

Some 15 years later he concluded that indeed traders do have a tendency for making predictably irrational, emotionally fueled, decisions that most of the times turn out to be detrimental for their net worth. In fact, he figured out that the emotions of traders have a direct influence on the price of the traded asset.

He then proceeded to use this information to outplay market participants, earning an estimated $10 billion in today’s dollars by trading in the Japanese rice markets.

Fun fact about Homma, he actually created the Japanese candlesticks which we use to this day.

Same broken cognitive bias can be observed in crypto traders

Hive is a prime example of a coin so volatile it repeatedly places traders in a highly emotionally charged state where they are most likely to make bad moves.

A coin where investor sentiment changes in a single candle from "FUD/frustration/anger" to "omg this is the best coin ever it's going to the fucking moon now". Every single time it does a 2x, I observe people expecting it to pull a 20x and when it inevitably dumps back 30-60% the same people who were so certain it's going to the moon two days ago, wouldn't touch it with a stick today.

Unknowingly, disheartened traders often sell close to the point of maximum financial opportunity.

Meaning, that the point where the chart hurt them the most (so much so that they've sold) is often the exact point where the most money is made and it's made by smart money dumping on the back of idiots selling out of fear of "losing it all".

I hope this is not you anon

If you find yourself making emotional trades, sincerely go check yourself before you wreck yourself.

Even if you haven't started losing yet.

You might be on a winning streak, thinking you're invincible until Bogdanov decides to "load ze dip" and take months of your profits in a few candles. Do yourself a favor and check yourself right now to learn how to identify and deal with emotions while trading before making any further traders.

I hope that learning this will make as much of a difference as it did to me.

Fail and this is how most of your trades will turn out.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/81qkxp/when_you_are_trying_to_buy_the_dip/?utm_term=486649213&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_source=embed&utm_name=&utm_content=header

Whether you'll keep filling Bogdanov's pockets or you'll start making some schmekels for yourself is solely up to you.