So the S2F model broken?

How is it going, everyone? I have a question. Is the crypto market fucked are what? Have I missed the boat again same as I did back in 2017? Do i have to and tell the wife we gotta wait another 4-5 years for this crypto shit to make us rich? ahhhhh.....shit!

I've been calling the market top for the last 3 years to come in between Dec 2021 and Feb 2022 and I thought BTC would be more than 3.5x from it least ATH so I've not sold a single Satoshi yet. If the bubble has popped and it's all downhill from here, my prediction was not bad but not good because it was still wrong. I was almost smart. Super shit because I run an investment fund right here on HIVE and I've been hoping to make a shit ton of money for my investors. I've been saying for the past 3 years, the top will come in DEC 2021 and then we'll be a million-dollar fund. Soo close as we peaked at near $800k.

Crypto is brutal, this is the game we decide to play so your just as bad as me probably, baaa-hahaha. Are we mad for playing this game with huge amounts of money? I mean if your net worth is $10k and $5k is in crypto, you are a little nutty. From an outsider's POV, we're straight-up weirdo's pissing our money into the wind living on a hope, a dream that this crypto shit will make us rich. Maybe they are right but being a weirdo has always worked out ok for me so far in life.

I see light at the end of the tunnel and it's in the form of the "stock to flow" prediction model. So either this SOB is broken are the best is still to come. If the peak has already come in and the price of BTC declines further, this model is a little broken and that's shitty. Check it out.

Before we start, you need to be aware that the crypto market cycle is getting longer each time. That's not a theory, that's a fact and as the overall market grows and matures over the next 5-20 years, BTC's dominance will decline, it'll be dethroned by ETH are a stable token and it's halving events every 4 years will become less relevant to the overall market cycle. BTC as a store of value is comparable to GOLD in the real world. Gold market cap is $12-14 trillion which is nothing compared to the derivatives are housing markets which are in the hundreds of trillions. Apple just become the first company to be worth $3 trillion. Point is, BTC is the first crypto money like gold was the first real money but greedy people got in the way and now we have tons of fake money.

I'd guess the same will happen with crypto. Im actually very scared of government-issued crypto because they'll be able to track everywhere you use money, what you use it for, where you move it. They'll be able to block your wallet address from certain things like public transport, alcohol purchases are whatever they like to control your spending, where you go, what you do. There's a similar system in parts of China where they split people into different classes with each class receiving different "privileges". So some people can travel, some can't, some can go to the cinema, some can't, some go to nice schools, some dont, you get the idea. That subject could be a post in itself.

For now, the market cycle still follows BTC's halving event as far as I can tell anyways. As you can see below, we've not gone red in a while so its fingers crossed overdue and coming soon. When you look at the S2F chart and you see the prediction price line, green means the BTC price is under the prediction price line, when it's red, it's over the prediction price line and normally a good time to sell.

As for the lengthening cycle, we can see from the past 2 cycles. The colour of the BTC price line is dependent on many days there are to the next halving event. This is useful when we are looking at the past because we can easily confirm the market cycle getting longer.

2013 peaked in lime green 1000ish days before the next halving. 2017 peaked in solid green 900ish days before the next halving event. We should peak in 2022 when it's turquoise within the next few months. Looking at it now, i think i could...

FUCK knows what will happen. The market will probably go sideways for a few weeks before the next big move. One of the biggest differences between 2013/17 and now is the housing and stock market are bubbling as well. The price of houses has exploded over the past 2-3 years and stock prices are crazy, hugely inflated with many having P/E ratios of well over 50 years. If housing pops again triggering the stock market crash, what does that mean for crypto? As a long time silver stacker, I dont fear a market crash but crypto has not gone through a proper market crash like what happened in 2008 so it'll be super interesting to see what happens when that time comes.

1 of 2 things i guess. 1, crypto pops with everything else and BTC drops back to down to under $10k and we all get bummed out as im sure the price of HIVE and everything else will follow. Or 2/ tons of scared money flows into crypto and BTC hits $200k creating another wave of craziness pumping up the whole market again. We could even see HIVE hit $5 if we get a #2.

What do you think is happening with the crypto market at the minute? I see alot saying Sept 2022 will be the peak but im not sure, that's a long time away and i think if June/July at the lastest if there is another push by bulls. Im only guessing the same as everyone else. lol.

Most of us on here will have been around crypto a few years and remember that in 2017 alot of us got wrecked and over HODLed. I've been waiting for this time for a long time and dont wanna repeat the same mistake as each market cycle becomes less profitable because there's less fluctuation in the prices as market caps grow from billions to trillions. Looking back in 20 -30 years from now, I hope to think I was so lucky to get into this new asset class so early and ahead of the general population. I'll probably be using a "britcoin" fake crypto by that time and many people reading this could be using the "fedcoin" fake crypto in the States. What's a plane ticket cost to El Salvador cost?

Anyways, Thanks for taking the time to read through the post. Is the S2F broken are, are we on track to $100k+ BTC?