Is the Crypto Market Bottom in? Hell NO!!

4d
9 Min Read
1718 words

Hello SPIers. We are all aware the markets have been crashing and it's been a rough few weeks. SPI is down around $300k from the top 6-7 months back, well i say down but we're still in profit because we stacked most of our HIVE when it was under 20 cents, our BTC at 9k and ETH at $330. I dont think we will see these prices again for BTC and ETH and we will see what happens with HIVE over the next 6-12 months as we head further into this bear market.

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I see lots of people writing about this recent crash being the market bottom but I would disagree and say we still have a ways to go before we see the crypto market bottom. By that, I mean time, not $ values. I'd say the bulk of the $ damage has been done already but we could see another 20-50% wiped off some cryptos. That might sound like lots but it's not really. If BTC peaked was $67k and it's $20k today, it's down 70%. If it were to drop another 25% to $15k from today's price of $20k, overall from its peak it would be down 77% so dropping 25% sounds like alot but in the bigger picture, it's more like another 7% from all-time high price. BTC normally drops over 80% so it's dropping to under $15k is not out the question. Granted this market cycle is different as BTC has dropped to under its last all-time high and it's gonna be some time before we can confirm if it dropping around 80% is still true are not.

The market has crashed a few times, the past few weeks have been brutal and we've all lost vast amounts of paper profits but I personally dont think enough time has passed yet. Market cycles are getting longer, not shorter(i think). I believe that we have another 6-12 months of prices going down and then we'll go sideways for a year before the next bullrun starts. You might be thinking, how much further can crypto prices go down? Im sorry, but I have no idea. If HIVE were to drop to under 10 cents again, I sure would be bummed out but I would not be that shocked. Put simply, the good times were only a few months back, we are all just confirming now we are in a bear market so it's gonna take more time. We've still to lose lots of weak hands, investors that FOMO'd into crypto for the 1st time within the past 6-12 months. People that went all into the DOGE or NFTs are starting to see that it's not all roses and sunshine and the pain is real. Investing is not easy when you over-invest in something and you need the money when the market is down 70-80%. We still have a ways to go before we see the bottom, lots of people that have hope today will not in 4-12 months' time and they'll decide crypto is a scam after all and exit at the bottom.

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(I'd say we at at "bull trap" now and "fear" is next)

We still have months before we see the true bottom. If you think otherwise, you are viewing too many clickbait news articles/videos and living in la-la land. Maybe im delusional and this is the bottom but I dont think so. People, in general, are what's reported in the news is normally wrong and old information. We all knew we were in a bear market before we were reading about it because we've watched our wallets losing a bunch of $ value 1st. This is why I started to convert HIVE into HBD when it was still 60 cents and why all defi earnings for the past 6-8 weeks have been converted into BUSD. When HIVE drops from over $2.50 to under 80 cents, it's probally not going over $1 again for a long time. The same thing for defi earnings, when you go from earning near $2k a week to about $1k per week, it's maybe time to start converting to a stable token and build a stack for crypto winter to get a bunch of stuff on sale.

With that said, I do think now would be a perfect time to invest if you are using a dollar-cost averaging plan. I reckon, if you were to start buying some crypto every week from now, you will have 18-24 months of good times and you'll be able to stack up alot of cheap crypto. Will BTC be worth more than $20k in 3-5 years? Hell yes! Will it drop to under $15k before then? I would bet yes because i believe we'll see $15k BTC before we see $67k+ BTC.

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Also worth noting that this is the 1st time in BTCs history that it has dropped to under its last all-time high of $20k. It's never done that before but we can take from this that the markets are maturing. I dont think the next BTC halving event we make as much of an impact as it used to because it's already priced in, we all know it's going to happen already. We could start to see longer market cycles as well, the norm to date has 4 years but the next could be 5 years as BTCs dominance dwindles as new tokens are released and money is spread out.

Lots of ifs, maybes and should I thoughts roll around my head for SPI. If you go back about 18 months ago to the weekly update videos I used to upload, You can see I timed out everything perfect. I said the peak would be at the end of 2021 and then we'd see a sharp decline for 12 months and the bottom at around the end of 2022, this year. I said it lots of times, and I also wrote about it. The reason being, I thought if I said it enough and repeated it, it would trick me into actually selling our BTC and ETH. Never worked, I never pulled the trigger, my timing was spot on but my price range was way off. When BTC topped at over $65k and was hitting new all-time highs in November, I was thinking, that we were all thinking that $100k was only a few weeks away because any time before when BTC hit new all-time highs, it went on the 2-5x it. Times are changing and I missed the chance to execute a plan I'd been preparing for 24-30 months because I thought the price was going to $150k plus.

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Last market cycle (2017-18) I learned to stack and dollar cost average into crypto for 2 years (2018-20) during crypto winter with my last crypto purchase being when the markets crashed in March 2020 because of COVID and BTC was around $5k. When BTC is under $18k, im a weekly buyer again and will be for next 18-24 months. In this market cycle, I learned timing is more important than price when it comes to market cycle flip investing. I dont think I will be planning this again as I believe the market will trick me again, or I'll trick myself into making a big mistake so we're just HODLing for life now. 3 years and running with no major screw-ups, no point in starting to try and get tricky now when it's already working for us. 😁.

Anyways, I just thought I would put this post out there as I see alot of we have hit the market bottom posts when there's really no chance in hell we're at the bottom. BTC going from $18k to $21k a few days back is not so much a recovery and more a bounce. It fell alot so when it slaps the bottom, it bounces up a little before it drops again. If we think of dropping a tennis ball, we've had the dig drop, now we are bouncing and then we'll flatline for a while before things start to pick up again. Excellent time to start dollar-cost averaging, not so much for investing with a large lump sum not that it would be a bad investment thinking out 5 years but dollar-cost averaging might result in a lower average buying price.

Anyways, hope you enjoyed today's post and that it gives you a few things to think about. We can't just think positive all the time, we can but then we would not be prepared for when things are not positive. I'd love to see HIVE moon to over $2 again but at the same time, I look forward to buying up tons when it's under 20 cents again knowing it'll go to over $1 someday. Short term, things will be bad but long term, we're already winning. BTC is already worth $250k, we just gotta wait for time to catch up. Might take 3 years, might take 15 years, we'll wait and see.

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SPI will continue to stack and compound. I have a few subsidiary projects planned for the bear market but im not sure if there is enough money within the HIVE ecosystem from investors that will buy HE tokens. HE tokens have been getting a bad rap lately plus it's the same people over and over releasing projects. I have already created 4 projects and 2 miners under SPinvest. I would like to grow out BearBonds with HBD saving's tokens that would pay out higher than 20% and weekly, not monthly but would there be a demand for it? Im not sure what's SPinvests reputation is worth anymore on HIVE, if it's good is bad. Either way, a few things are planned for the bear market but nothing super exciting, more back-end stuff to help with real-time investment tracking and things like this. We might shake shit up and consider an ICO #2. Alot has changed in the 3 years from SPinvest and SPI was launched and tech is making things easier for us. Maybe I should network more with other project operators and devs. Ok getting way off the post,

Thank you for reading the post, what do you think? Bottom or no?

Peace out and stay safe in these crazy times!


4d (edited)

I don't think it's the bottom yet because there's some global stuff that has to play out and my thinking is that that is going to be over the next six months to a year, possibly longer if we are not able to resolve what's happening in Ukraine.

I've found the price drop a useful experience that's made me re-evaluate my plans. If the price goes up, that's cool, I'm in a more thought-through place than I was before and with more focused plans. If the price goes down, well, that's a nice time to play - buy a few Hive to experiment with, try out new things, it doesn't matter too much if they go wrong, because you didn't spend very much in the first place.

It seems to me that if we want to expand SPIs portfolio we need to focus on building a bigger audience from outside Hive and perhaps an educational/savings/investment route might be where there is potential for SPI. I have been looking at LISTNERDS as a potential route for growing an audience - because it's structured - that, either alone, or with Saturdays Savers Club Version 2, might be a route to growing the investor base. This post seems to indicate only 6,000 or so folks on Hive, with only about 250 or so posting in Leofinance, so room for some outreach/community building and, as you say, everything is getting easier. This is actually a good time to do it when the cost of entry is so low.

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Let's see what happens because inflation is still increasing with no let up in sight, crypto despite people wishing it is still affected by such things clearly.
@spinvest thanks for sharing on Listnerds😎
Have the best day
!ALIVE
!CTP
!BBH

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@spinvest! You Are Alive so I just staked 0.1 $ALIVE to your account on behalf of @benthomaswwd. (5/20)

The tip has been paid for by the We Are Alive Tribe through the earnings on @alive.chat, feel free to swing by our daily chat any time you want.

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Crypto is a risk off trade. Sadly, the risk on/risk off is tied to the Fed. So, while the Fed doesnt truly put any liquidity out there since it doesnt deal in USD, many people buy into that. Hence, while tightening, people view it as liquidity leaving the markets.

I think they will have a tough time getting a hike rate through in Sept. It might sneak through but look for them to reverse course shortly thereafter. This will mean foreshadowing, ie a 3 month window where they say they will start easing again.

I look to prepare for the risk on at the end of the year. It might not hit until Q2 of 2023 but when it does, it will be powerful.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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Excellent post, hold onto your hat, I Will continue to dollar cost average....😀

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Build the projects. Who cares if its the same investors, we are investing.

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