Managing Splinterlands Expectations

Yesterday, I was asked what the APR was on staked SPS, because the APR percentage is split between Vouchers and SPS, making it difficult to ascertain. Because I have close to 500K staked, the calculation is a bit easier, though I actually have 527K staked. This will never be completely accurate, other than as a snapshot of a point in time, as it will fluctuate based on a number of factors, mostly by how much other people have staked for SPS earnings too. This stake has increased since the end of the airdrop as people pulled out of pools and into the in-game stake, which has driven down the APR by about 15% I think.

It had been around two hours since I had staked, so I simply took the current voucher and SPS number and multiplied it by twelve to guestimate the 24-hour return, which I estimated at 22 vouchers and 276 SPS.

Now that it is very close to the full-day returns, the actual numbers currently are:

The current APR is 29.82%.

The current value of Vouchers is $0.44 The current value of SPS is $0.074

With 527K staked and the value of SPS being $0.074, the return should be around 150,000 SPS worth a year, split between SPS and vouchers, all things remaining equal, which they won't of course, but that is the information we have.

At the day marker in about 15 minutes, I will have 23.4 vouchers a day and around 288 SPS.

Voucher value: ~$10.25 SPS value ~$21.30

At least currently, this gives a nice ratio split of value around 1:2 in value terms, meaning that 1/3rd of the APR is coming in through vouchers, 2/3rds in SPS. If we extrapolate that out for the next year, it will be 3,741 in vouchers and $7,778 in SPS, for a total of $11,519 and if you remember from the 150K worth of SPS earned in stake yield, that has a value of $11,100 - so pretty close.

However, this extrapolation is quite irrelevant, as while the snapshot view of the last 24 hours might be relatively accurate, every day it is going to get less so, as more vouchers and SPS are pushed into the supply, staked, spent, used, lost, whatever - with every fractional change affecting the entire economics of every factor connected to it.

Obviously for me, I see these Splinterlands assets as investments into various Splinterlands activities as well as from a financial investment front. My expectation is that both of these assets are going to increase, but not necessarily increase at the same rate, or potentially, not even at the same time, though timing is likely far more correlated due to how they are used.

And, the value especially for vouchers in this case is affected by the activity path, as for example, if buying a node license, those vouchers can be used to gain a discount worth $3 each, which means that rather than $10 worth, they would be worth $69 - however, that also requires spending the SPS for the other half to get the license also.

However, I do expect that once Rift Watchers comes closer to release, the value of both of these are going to increase and I am guessing, it is already happening as people collect in anticipation. For example, the one-hour chart from Huobi (a new market) shows a steady increase from about 0.068 to 0.073, with a decent volume of 600K a day, which is in a market only open for three days so far.

If that trend line continues trajectory over the next 6 weeks, there would be a value of around $0.14 on SPS, doubling from the start point. This puts a lot more pressure on license sales and also the demand on Rift Watcher packs, which will likely need vouchers. So, more demand on vouchers too, coming from both directions where on one side it will be worth $3 for licenses and on the other, whatever the presale number demands. This makes it quite interesting, as the presale is unlikely to have vouchers priced at $3, and is more likely going to be something like a guarantee of purchase or something, based on an arbitrary voucher number. As there is a promo card on offer for the presale (soft announced), people will have to speculate on which is worth more to them, the card or, selling the SPS into the market demand.

Either way, in the short-term of the next couple months, the outlook seems quite bright for both SPS and vouchers and once the announcements really start to roll, I expect some FOMO to kick in and rather than a steady climb, there will be some more hockeysticking instead, which as normal, will wreak havoc with the marketplaces and dynamics, as prices swirl all over the place and people are unsure what to do. Sell, buy, spend, hold?

And, it is because of this last uncertainty of action that I have tried to move relatively early into these assets, because I know that I suffer far more than I did earlier, from indecision, as my ability to visualize the greater ecosystem and quickly assess what is a satisfactory course of action has been heavily impaired. For now, I can "sit tight" and "relax" (nervously watching) as the Splinterlands Team develop along their path, people make their plays and the markets do their thing in response.

I can't control the market, I can just affect my position in it.

Taraz [ Gen1: Hive ]