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Too Bearish and too Bullish

avatar of @tarazkp
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@tarazkp
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Too bearish on the way up, too bullish on the buyback opportunity on the way down...

My life as a trader.

Expectation:

Taken from 11pm Finnish time last night after the first pump:

Reality:

What actually happened:

As you can see, while I missed the top, my bullish buyback greed was looking for a low at 38-40 to bounce off, but unfortunately, it only dropped to 41.5, before bouncing up to 66.

That sucks.

But has happened so often that you'd think I'd learn by now and push the buyback up a little higher. That 2-3% difference would have gained me 15% more tokens from the sell, before reselling on the way up again, where I would have likely added 40%.

Hypothetically with 100 Hive sold at a 49c average, I would have had 49 dollars worth. Buying back at 42c would have given me 116 HIVE, a gain of 16%. Selling at 40% up would have given an average of ~59c and amounted to 70 dollars worth - that is not a bad return.

If it happened.

But it rarely does happen that way, at least in the short-term trades for me. Long-term as a holder, all is good, there will be other opportunities and 3-5 dollar Hive isn't that far away, is it?

It is funny though in many respects, as while I am currently working my ass off to close the quarter and score a bonus, the value of my bonus pales to near nothing in comparison to how much change there is in my Hive account value. Getting that trade right last night instead of missing the buyback, would have covered my next couple bonuses. However, I have a weird relationship with crypto, as if it isn't there to ever spend - unlike fiat, that I don't want to hold onto at all and it just burns a hole in my pocket.

I am getting better at handling my money, which is good since I am near mid-forties already, but I am still far from well-disciplined. This comes as a surprise to some people who know me from a professional sense, but not to those who know me personally. Still - practice makes perfect. And I am getting plenty of practice.

Crypto has become such a massive part of my life now in several ways that it is hard to imagine my life and daily routines without it. However, going back almost 6 years, I couldn't have predicted what the future would have looked like with it. It has been a shot out of the dark in terms of getting into it and where it has led my professionally and personally, which is makes it even more compelling for me to participate, because while it is daily life and routine, it is still "exotic" for many people and they don't dare travel too close.

It is like a person from Scandinavia choosing to move to a tropical rainforest, or someone scared of heights going skydiving. Even if they might want to experience different or feel the thrill, it is such a huge step because it is so different to the normal. For most people, including many investors, crypto is a language that they just aren't willing to learn, because they are so scared of entering into a place where that language is spoken. Instead, they imagine themselves as knowledgeable enough to understand what it is to take part.

But, as someone who had a pretty good imagination, I never expected this!

And, I am not talking about the value of tokens and such, I mean the feeling connected to relative strangers, taking part in a financial movement that could fundamentally change the economy, or being an activist of a kind for the betterment of humanity. Also, I never imagined myself as a content creator, blogger, or social media person of any kind at all.

It isn't my nature.

So why is it now? Some will of course cite the potential for financial reward and while true, that is more of a byproduct of the activity, a reaction to action. But, it is true that the financial reward changes the incentive to take part at all kinds of levels, because it creates an economy amongst the users, connecting them in all kinds of relationships for different reasons.

This makes Web3 fundamentally different to Web2, as while there is plenty of commerce happening online now, much of it is outside of the reach of the daily user and instead, the vast majority of value is reserved for the corporations. The only reason there is any trickledown at all from their coffers to content creators is, because it makes business sense in order to attract a userbase. If they could reduce their customer acquisition costs by cutting out content creator reward and still grow, they would.

And again, this is another reason that makes it compelling to interact here than elsewhere. Here on Hive and in crypto in general, I own my experience and can choose how and where I spend my time and who I interact with. A lot is still out of my control, but it is more likely to be within the ecosystem of control of others like me, people who are owning their experience too.

It makes this a fantastic place to interact, learn and invest, because it is ours.

While I make a lot of trade "errors" in regards to bulls and bears - I am at least so far, always bullish on Hive - no matter the price. Missing a trade here and there doesn't matter in the bigger picture - missing the boat on the biggest EVER change to the global economy, well, that is not a boat I want to miss, because of what it means for all of us.

Taraz [ Gen1: Hive ]

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta