Hive: How Quickly Things Can Change
Did everyone see the jump in the price of HIVE? Of course you did. It was the topic, it seems, in one out of three posts recently. A massive run in price was not about to be overlooked by the community.
Whether it was simply a pump followed by a massive dump remains to be seem. We will see how the pricing action unfolds over the next week or so.
What we do know is things can change very quickly. When something starts going, it can run. Manias happen in different ways, with price being just one of the forms. We could also see something similar in terms of users.
In the digital world, when dealing with a potential base of more than 4.5 billion people, success can come very quickly. Something simply going "viral" can turn a few users unto tens of thousands overnight. We saw this happen repeatedly over the last 25 years.
It is the advantage of not being mired in a particular geographic area. When the entire global, online community is a potential user, this can take off.
These charts are well known by now to many. It is the classical exponential versus linear growth chart. As we can see the numbers from the red line to the green get very different once the "elbow" of the green hits.
Another way of phrasing this is the Network Effect. When we only have a couple people involved growth, in raw numbers, can be slow. However, as the more people (nodes) are involved, the word of mouth means the numbers can get big rather quickly.
It is the situation where if 10 people each tell a person, 10 more people know about it. Yet the numbers chart much different if 10,000 people each tell another individual. In the later, 10,000 more people are aware of what is taking place.
Cryptocurrency is now approaching the point where the numbers are big enough to make a significant difference. Obviously, for the most part, telling people will not be effective since a lot have already heard about it. Crypto's growth is going to come from the involvement in it. In other words, people actually getting involved to the point whereby they have some crypto in their wallets.
Here is where Hive enters the picture in my opinion.
Since there are a lot more people who are aware of cryptocurrency today as compared to a few years back, we will be able to leverage that for much greater numbers. However, there is still one problem: with rare exceptions, the common way to acquire cryptocurrency is to buy it. One needs to take existing money in their account and swap it for crypto.
This is a challenge when you consider that half the United States, the richest country in the world, cannot come up with $500 to meet an emergency expense. It means we are dealing with people who do not have a lot of excess capital.
Again, this is right up Hive's alley. As the interest in crypto grows, people are going to learn they are better served by being involved. Of course, individuals are left looking in from the outside if they have no money to invest. This means another alternative has to be presented.
Presently, we are seeing a few projects that are working on offering abilities that people are familiar with. When utilized, the applications will enable people to take action that always have while providing the potential to be rewarded for what they do. This will start the process of sending crypto into another wave of people's wallets.
It is also the process that will allow the trajectory to follow the green line on the exponential chart.
The question is would everyone like Hive's path to follow the green line? The answer is obvious.
Now, look at the chart closer. What most miss is how the green line actually unfolds. Notice the first 4 iterations. During that time, the line is flat, hardly moving. The red line takes off immediately while the blue line starts to move during the second time period. Yet the green one just struggles along, not doing much of anything.
Does this sound familiar? Certainly there are a lot of other blockchain projects that got a great deal more attention than Hive as well as the financial rewards from the markets on that. All the while, Hive is overlooked, thought to be dead by many.
Nevertheless, to achieve the end result, the early stages have to be endured. That is what people miss. They want exponential growth cycles yet do not want to go through what it takes to set that off. Ultimately, it is accessing pent up demand that sets things on a parabolic trajectory. To tap into that, one needs the proper applications. This is what is being developed.
Another thing to keep in mind is that period 7 looks like it was remarkably different from the first couple iterations. The growth rate going from 1 to 7 was incredible. Yet, when viewed through the lens of what followed, we can see how the move was minor in comparison.
Does this sound like the move from $.10 to $.40. A huge move certainly but, perhaps, minor in comparison to ultimately what takes place.
We are in the digital world where things can change very quickly. The move from 100K to 1 million can take place much faster than the corresponding one from 10K to 100K. This is the power of the Network Effect.
Over the years, it happened hundreds of times. My view is that we end up seeing similar results on Hive once we get a few applications that touch the mainstream consciousness going.
At that point, the moves we are presently discussing will see minimal.
Just follow the exponential growth chart to see how things are apt to go.
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