Hive: Monthly Distribution Report Through 1/5/2021: Orcas Having A Party Again
With All the excited of the New Year and what is going on, I totally forgot to do the monthly report. I apologize for that. This one will be about 5 weeks while the next one will be for 3.
For about two years, I did a monthly report on Steem called "STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken". This took a look at how the distribution of Steem Power changed on a monthly basis. The presumption on there was that the Whales were just getting more powerful when the reality showed the exact opposite. When it came to Steem Power, over a two years period of time, things were flattening out.
Of course, we know that Steemit Inc selling part of the stake each month had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, as we found out, not enough was sold.
I decided to bring this report over to Hive so that we can monitor how things are going. I am going to use the first chart I have from Steem as the initial basis since Hive has its roots there. The chart is pertinent for all categories other than the Whales since we know that is much different than on Hive due to Steemit Inc.
These are the numbers through January 5, 2021.
Each month I monitor what is going on with new accounts and the amount of MVests in each category. I do this to determine what trends are taking place.
Now that we are at end of month, time to post the numbers again.
I want to thank @arcange for the work done each day compiling these numbers and making the charts.
We will be showing 3 months worth of data for analysis purposes to see how the 90 trend might be.
The first chart is from August of 2017, the month I started on Steem. It is placed here to provide some contrast to see how things are changing over a longer period of time.
Here is the breakdown.
8/1/2017
https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmTqYQggdMfyUA5sSb9yvbbwFsx57etKXAJ4J2vrPnspfF
The total MVests here is 336,932.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 75.44% Orcas 14.86% Dolphins 7.16% Minnows 2.14% Red Fish .01% Inactive .40%
The total MVests here is 267,915 .
On a percentage basis:
Whales 38.97% Orcas 27.03% Dolphins 18.86% Minnows 9.87% Red Fish 5.27%
The change over that time period is as such:
Whales +.83% Orcas -1.78% Dolphins +.48% Minnows +.82% Red Fish -.19%
11/30/2020
The total MVests here is 267,965 .
On a percentage basis:
Whales 38.78% Orcas 27.34% Dolphins 18.75% Minnows 9.87% Red Fish 5.26%
The change over that time period is as such:
Whales -.52% Orcas +1.15% Dolphins -.58% Minnows 0% Red Fish -.19%
1/5/2021
The total MVests here is 270,108.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 38.98% Orcas 27.73% Dolphins 18.2% Minnows 9.86% Red Fish 5.28%
The change over that time period is as such:
Whales +.51% Orcas +1.43% Dolphins -2.93% Minnows -.1% Red Fish -.7%
10/31/2020
11/30/2020
1/5/2021
The Orcas continue to have a party. They are the ones making the major moves over the last three months. In that time, the number of accounts went from 291 to 303, a gain of 12. What is very positive is only 1 of those was due to a Whale moving down. The rest, 11, were Dolphins who powered up to the point of qualifying for Orca.
That is a very positive sign for distribution.
It also tells us that those who were at the Dolphin level are doing well. The weak point is the Minnows, since not enough of them are moving up to compensate for the ones who "graduate".
Perhaps this is a good time to explain how this works. Each category outside of Whales, can have people move up. Everything is a multiple of 10. Thus, it takes 10x the number of MVests to be a Dolphin as opposed to a Minnow. Therefore, if a Dolphin moves up to Orca, to remain the same, 10 Minnows need to move up. In the last 3 months, we saw the number of Dolphins go down.
The Red Fish are doing their part, with a gain of 42 over that time. This has allowed the Minnow group to hold its place overall.
So what is the reason for all this?
My guess is that the recent success and interest in some of the tribes is directing people in that direction. Instead of focusing upon powering up HIVE, they are putting their efforts towards the second layer. This is a sensible move both from an individual standpoint as well as the entire ecosystem. However, the key to long-term success, from that perspective, is to get more people involved in those second layer applications.
On October 31, 2020, the Whales and Orcas had 176,521 MVests (65.99 of the total), a decrease of .26%; on November 30, 2020, 177,170 MVests (66.12% of the total), an increase of .19%.; On January 5, 2021, 180,200 MVests (66.71% of the total), an increase of .89%.
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