POLYCUB Halving: Are We Nearing The Bottom?
For those who were not paying attention, the halving of POLYCUB took place earlier today. The emission rate went from 2 per block down to 1. This is a 50% reduction.
So where are we standing? Let us take a look at that so we can surmise where things might be heading.
For the moment, there is no word on the new features being added to Polycub. Personally, I am fine with this. The key for now is to let the deflation on POLYCUB take place. This means that the price, in USD, might keep heading down (more on this in a moment). However, the less the emission rate when things are released, the more of an impact they will make.
By now most have seen the chart and table that @onealfa made. We will use it as a guide to what is coming up.
Present State Of POLYCUB
We just completed the 4th week since Polycub was introduced. Hence, the arrow on the chart is now moved over one more slot. So we are working our way up the scale.
Looking at the table, we can see the emission rate will go over time.
The table has the new weekly rate now at 368K. I dont know if that is correct since that is not 50% of the prior week but it is in the ballpark. For the moment, the emission rate is truly secondary in terms of preciseness. We simply need to know it is dropping.
We also have a POLYCUB price of 33 cents. This is a brick dropping on a daily basis. The question is when will it bottom out? We will try to uncover that too.
Finally, the POLYCUB/xPOLYCUB ratio is nearing 20. That will be a level we will hit at some point in the coming week.
How Close To A Bottom
If we are looking at a weekly distribution of 368K POLYCUB, that means, at the present 33 cents, we only need $120K of buy pressure to soak up all the new emissions. Are we getting that? We will find out over the next four weeks.
Remember, at this point in time, the protocol is not adding on that end of things. Hence, it is all buy pressure from the community with outside resources.
The truth is we might be in for lower levels. Is there $120K of new money coming in each week? Of course, this could be insufficient to offset the dumping that is done by those who are farming. That said, the reduction in emissions will decrease that.
What we do know is that things are slowing. The amount of POLYCUB going into the xPOLYCUB contract is tailing off. This is naturally by design. We also have the reduction in potential xPOLYCUB declining at a slowing pace.
That means, at some point, we will also see an easing of the freefall in the price of USD.
Polycub By Week 25
For those who grasp the idea of HODLing, let us project out to week 25. According to the chart, we are going to be dealing with 7,785 POLYCUB per week. If we have the USD price flatline from now until then, we are looking at $2,598 of new POLYCUB hitting the market each week. This is $135K per month.
At that time, the bonding will long be in place. If that feeds even a million into the protocol, the new POLYCUB could be swallowed up with a simply 13.5% annual return. This is likely less than the HBD Liquidity Pool will provide.
So while $120K might still be too much for the system to absorb, we know $2,600 is nothing. Therefore, we can understand how the USD price is going to stop its decline sometime between these two points.
I am going to guess it is closer to Week 5 than 25.
We have roughly 4.8 million POLYCUB issued. The next 4 weeks are going to see us cross over 6 million. The effective number we use where the slowdown is such that it is not relevant is 7.241. That means we will have a little more than 1 million POLYCUB to be issued after the 8th week.
In other words, these 4 weeks are the last time we are going to see a fair bit of tokens issued. Once we reach May, we will see the number at 126K per week.
If I had to guess, this seems like a time where we could really see a major reversal. The emission rate will be such that it only takes about $60K (at present USD price) to go through all the new POLYCUB. We will also have bonding in place. There is also a good chance that we have the lending platform operational too.
Put all that together and we will see the demand for POLYCUB going up. This will provide the buy side pressure that is presently lacking.
To me, it is simply of question of when do people realize what is taking place and jump in. Seeing how the numbers are going, it will be driven home as the scarcity takes hold.
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