We did start back in Nove so we are roughly 10 months into the downturn.
So I guess it all depends upon when you want to start it.
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True... I was thinking 12-18 months from now.
Essentially the Fed would need to stop raising rates, do something with its massive balance sheet, and consumer spending will need to start going up before we get out of this downturn.
The raising of interest rates, or stopping of it, will come rather quickly in my opinion. I think the Fed will keep getting more bad news.
As for the balance sheet, that doesnt really matter at the end of the day. The Fed is now having to carry the weight of the global economy since the Eurodollar system is broken.
They will only keep adding.